tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14410328.post4970702618378323044..comments2024-03-20T23:10:05.429+05:30Comments on Indian Stocks: Is the Markets ready for a 15 Trillion Dollar Liquidity Pump.What'sUp Prahaladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216054234415437998noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14410328.post-75937461223399992142011-10-14T10:34:46.165+05:302011-10-14T10:34:46.165+05:30Thanks for the reply....Thanks for the reply....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14410328.post-78201323174059878922011-09-28T14:35:03.598+05:302011-09-28T14:35:03.598+05:30Anonymous:
Riddhi Siddhi was sold for 1.4 times i...Anonymous:<br /><br />Riddhi Siddhi was sold for 1.4 times its Sales (Riddhi has only corn starch business..) GAEL current Corn derivatives capacity 1000 MT and future capacity 2500MT <br />Current corn starch business sales is 406Cr so future sales number will be approximately 1015Cr and its Corn business "SALE" value would be: 1421Cr <br /><br />SALE price is higher than general valuation.. but all said and done GAEL true/fair value is easily 100+ per share.. which would be my target price.. <br /><br />=happy investing<br />whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.comWhat'sUp Prahaladhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05216054234415437998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14410328.post-24000955211197203022011-09-28T09:41:04.517+05:302011-09-28T09:41:04.517+05:30Dear Whatsup,
I didnt mention that u were wrong. ...Dear Whatsup,<br /><br />I didnt mention that u were wrong. Actually I read the above post after only after posting mine..I just wanted to know, when the Maize crushing capacity of GAEL exceeds of that of Riddi siddi, then can we see the price sky rocket to the present levels of Riddi siddi??Meaning a real multi multi bagger??I too bought and holding the stock after reading your blog...Take care, regards.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14410328.post-48205452178821533992011-09-28T00:01:16.843+05:302011-09-28T00:01:16.843+05:30Anonymous:
Dont get me wrong.. I really like GAEL...Anonymous:<br /><br />Dont get me wrong.. I really like GAEL.. what I was trying to say was that the investment horizon in GAEL instead of being 12-24 months should have been 36months or more ..<br /><br />+36 months is a more realistic time period .. ie in hindsight.<br /><br />=happy investing<br />whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.comWhat'sUp Prahaladhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05216054234415437998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14410328.post-20005875777976922222011-09-27T23:15:55.919+05:302011-09-27T23:15:55.919+05:30Dear Whatsup...
How are you doing?
Present Maize c...Dear Whatsup...<br />How are you doing?<br />Present Maize crushing capacity of Riddhi Siddi is about 1500MT per day. For GAEL its 1000MT per day. It will be adding another 750MT per day by March 2012. And it also plans to expand to another 750..So in total will become 2500(approx) by 2013..(hopefully)...Where do u see the stock price by then??will it become another Venky'sie., 10x from here???...Im holding 10k shares...Thanks and regards<br />Just see this link<br />http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/gael-to-expand-maize-processing-capacity-by-70-in-fy12/439374/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14410328.post-62953494779121180962011-09-27T20:09:29.708+05:302011-09-27T20:09:29.708+05:30KM:
yes the wait .. I dont remember but someone d...KM:<br /><br />yes the wait .. I dont remember but someone did mention that should'nt we have a 3yrs timeframe for investment when I had given a target for 12-24 months.. now at hind sight Its better to be conservative...<br /><br />=happy investing<br />whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.comWhat'sUp Prahaladhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05216054234415437998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14410328.post-83596640675838142592011-09-27T17:13:43.423+05:302011-09-27T17:13:43.423+05:30Thanks Prahalad, for your response. Stock market i...Thanks Prahalad, for your response. Stock market is a place where diametrically opposite views both hold good between two experts. We need to wait very long before we get to know the verdict of the market. <br /><br />Regardskmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15029062685347331417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14410328.post-23752160048719876702011-09-27T15:30:55.805+05:302011-09-27T15:30:55.805+05:30Murali:
I did visit the link.. and I guess everyo...Murali:<br /><br />I did visit the link.. and I guess everyone has their own view..<br /><br />As Mr Devdutt Pattanaik said.. <br />- "Truth is always relative"<br /><br />I would add:<br />- "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder"<br /><br />As far as Poor showing in Q1 2012 is considered (June 2011) and GAEL not able to keep up the margins for year end. .. (extrapolating june numbers..)Well it is a well known fact that Agro Processing is seasonal..Q1-Q2 are always lean seasons and Q3 & Q4 are where the maximum money is made.. (This was mentioned in an interview by Mr Gupta and can be seen if we look at Q1-Q4 data of year ending march 2011 .. it also shows how we need to dig deep.. and a superficial glance does not reveal everything..and every ratio or analysis will not be matching for all sectors.. consumer goods and pharma have consistent margins every quarter.. not agro commodities.) <br /><br />There is mention of how Cash flow should be net of investment.. and how GAEL has not been reporting +ve cash flows for past 2 years..<br /><br />- Well "Debt/Equity has not increased"? <br />- 70Cr of investments in stocks and bonds has not been mentioned.<br />- Credit rating is impeccable. from CRISIL<br />- Capacity expansion is being done with internal accruals..<br />- Maize derivatives plant setup in uttarakhand was setup with internal accruals.. and now more than 50% of profits are from maize derivatives..<br /> <br />I think the question is do you say. <br />- Glass is half full or<br />- Glass is half empty.<br /><br />Looking at the data in the blog I wonder which companies qualify? most likely Pharma, Consumer Goods but all with high PE .. market cap to sales ratio higher than 1.2<br /><br />============================<br />If there are no issues with the new karnataka Maize derivatives plant we should see GAEL report 100Cr+ net profit this year end (March 2012) <br /><br />.. GAEL management seems to be conservative and not interested in <br />courting with Dalal street .. that I think is the real problem.. (from stock price performance perspective)<br /><br />having said that GAEL dividend payout percentage for last 9 years is 13.32% while for March 2011 it was 10.28% so a 30% higher dividend should be the norm.. (based on 9 yrs history..) <br />I would say we should expect 80 paisa dividend for march 2012<br /><br />Again hopefully there are no negative developments in the setup of new maize derivatives plant.<br /><br />For me its "Hold,Hold,Hold" <br />Yes .. GAEL is testing our patience but.. till now it has done nothing wrong.. the value equations are getting better with every passing day.. (can we complain if profits increase from 60 to 94Cr with no increased debt or dilutions and management buying stocks from the market whenever it falls? )<br /><br />=happy investing<br />whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.comWhat'sUp Prahaladhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05216054234415437998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14410328.post-47348296966638085622011-09-27T12:10:53.614+05:302011-09-27T12:10:53.614+05:30Dear Prahalad,
The following link estimates GAEL ...Dear Prahalad,<br /><br />The following link estimates GAEL in a different fashion and suggests its not a sound investment.<br /><br />http://valueoperations.com/index.php/entry/this-is-fate-you-donwant-for-yourself<br /><br />Can you pls share your thoughts after reading the contents from the link.<br /><br />Regardskmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15029062685347331417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14410328.post-60627562995094455792011-09-25T15:12:36.794+05:302011-09-25T15:12:36.794+05:30Anonymous:
Surya Roshni was one of my first buys ...Anonymous:<br /><br />Surya Roshni was one of my first buys 5-6 yrs back.. <br />Prakash Industries is also from the same family.. <br />Surya Roshni has the largest GLS lamp factory and its fully integrated.. <br /><br />unfortunately GLS Lamp is the incandescent lamp which nobody uses as it is highly inefficient.<br /><br />Also the HBT(Hydrogen Based Technology) Flourescent tubes.. (tubelights..) take forever to start .. though they are a few rupees cheaper. .. but I have one in my house.. And I dont use it .. DONT.. cause it takes 3 times longer to start and by that time it lights up.. its time to leave the room.. <br /><br />Also I had checked their product Star ratings And it was 3Star (CFL lamps) in US .. <br /><br />I did hold a ton of shares.. but sold it for 70-90 bucks and never looked back.. <br /><br />Same with Prakash Industries.. (though I think Prakash is managed by elder brother..) shows tonnes of profit .. Zero taxes and Zero dividends.. Huge equity dilutions<br /><br />I think we can AVOID Surya roshni..<br />Also the annual report for march 2011 says equity as:<br />March 2011 Equity: 61.46Cr <br />March 2010 Equity: 37Cr<br />March 2009 Equity: 28.43Cr<br /><br />Its an Avoid.. for sure.<br /><br />=happy investing<br />whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.comWhat'sUp Prahaladhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05216054234415437998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14410328.post-34902689318116653222011-09-25T13:01:48.664+05:302011-09-25T13:01:48.664+05:30WHATSuP,Do you tracking surya roshni? what is your...WHATSuP,Do you tracking surya roshni? what is your view? Company done open offer at 111 level few months back .Now available at 50% discount!! Is it worth buy ?? pls share your fundamental viewAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com