Primarily its because I am turning bearish and diversification I feel is not going to give any better results.
Recently I came across a blog where you get to learn how to fish (invest) and its presented in "layman" terms.. The website is: http://www.safalniveshak.com
Safal Niveshak (Hindi phrase for ‘successful investor’) is a movement to help you, the small investor, become intelligent, independent, and successful in your stock market investing decisions. It’s about a new way of thinking about investing that can unleash the smart investor within you, and lead you to prosperity and financial peace of mind
Lots of stuff to read with tutorials video's, pdf company review's. Though I did not see any stock tips.. but then I feel its important to read these articles and this will give you the conviction to find value and have conviction on your find.
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If you are looking for stock picks.. you should try the screener.. http://www.screener.in/
you get highest dividend yield.. best quarterly results .. you also have options to develop your own custom screen.. I think its a great tool.. specially when its available for free.
So this is it.. A Screener to filter through the listed companies list (India it seems has the largest number of listed stocks and BSE is the largest in the world for number of listed securities.)
Screener has a companion site "http://dalal-street.in/" where stocks are recommended..
So we have a Screener to narrow down the list of stocks.. then we have fundamental analysis tutorial in "safal niveshak" so that you can catch your own fish!!
Happy Fishing and Happy Investing
Posts
14 comments:
Hahahahaha...I read it as Safal Vinashak!! :)
If you do long term analysis, there are these booms once in 10-12 years. I don't know which sector will boom in India in the next 4-5 years.
Services are matured. Guess,it is the time of "material" world.
I am the same poster above. Did go thru Safal Niveshak. I like the simplicity & humility with which the author has shared investment ideas. May his breed increase!!
And thank you WhatsUP Ji, for sharing.
Best,
Anonymous ji:
This decade is India's decade.. India is the largest growing working population country in the world..
i.e. the working age people is the largest and the avg age of working age people is still decreasing..
In case of China the avg age of the working age population is increasing..
I read the research somewhere.. unfortunately could not capture the data to present it here in the blog..
So consumption is going to still increase in India.. and at the fastest pace.. all these countries which were the asian tigers.. actually those phenomenal growth rates were based on age demographics.. so India is in a sweet spot for growth..
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As far as services are matured.. look at US and other developed countries..services are matured but country continued to do exceptionally well in terms of growth for decades..
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My only fear is the energy crisis which will spoil the party..
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
Anonymous ji:
what do you mean by "Material world"
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
WhatsUP Ji,
Material world as in materials - physical things, not services. For example, think of products made by Dupont. They called it as "material sciences".
Anonymous ji:
the problem is most "material stuff" needs energy during production and also in its use.. (car, washing machine, computers, handheld etc..)
we were living in a use and throw society.. based on perpetual consumption..
with drop in cheap energy.. reuse is the " new buzz word" hence material things will start being long lasting.. and used till end of life of the product.. reducing demand for new products substantially..
India however due to its demographic advantage might continue to see a rise in demand.. though it might be short lived..
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
I give here the link to interview of Mr. Sanjeev Duggal, Fund Manager HSBC, wherein he talks of growing youth population of India and ageing population of China http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYQFusqbu9c. However, Kindly also read this article:http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/th6KViPRTB2DI4qUe71hBN/Economic-growth-RIP.html. The author talks of "Three gale forces—low skill, poor attitude and bad health—threaten India’s demographic dividend". What i feel personally is that we as a nation are only promoting consumption as if we are very rich and there is no tomorrow. EMI culture! Nobody talks of productivity, discipline, savings. I think we shall be rudely woken up with foreign exchange crisis.
ttthakur
TTThakur ji:
Yes the govt is driving "consumption lead growth".. and we donot need that..
Investment lead growth is being pushed back to keep inflation on check..
The problem is govt is not able to explicitly direct resources to specific areas .. like in china because its not a command and control economy..
Dollar is over valued.. and the western holders want to get inside India market "the growth story of the decade at attractive dollar rates"
Looking at US as idol... the govt is being encouraged to go for a consumption led economy like US
Unfortunately Indian rupee is not the world reserve currency and we could have major exchange crisis due to forex demand/supply mismatch..
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
If youth of India feed growth by EMI economy, we are looking at rapid decline -- both in economic terms and at society at large. Real growth comes from value addition, be it services or manufacturing.
Question is, in youthful India, where is value addition? Consumption is not value addition.
Anonymous ji:
I think there are two or more points ..
Demographic dividend:- Demographic dividend will cause increase in consumption at the minimum..
( A fact which is not discussed.. as the largest section of Baby boomers in US were going to enter retirement age..and sell their assets (home equity and 401k stock market investment..) the 2008-2009 financial crash occurred.. wiping out their savings in housing and stock market..) So the smart money got out before the general public started selling..
Yes consumption itself is not sufficient.. and low quality consumption could easily result in large population being dependent on the govt and society..
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Value addition happens in small pockets.. for eg: burger flipping is not much of a value add.. but given the processes and structure built around it.. and we have Mcdonald.
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The education system.. as we know is structured to build .. a working class.. not an entrepreneur.
Even in US the general population does low value add work..
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The real problem as I see it is energy equation:-
All of our current environment is built on Cheap energy.. As the cost of energy increases.. certain economic activities will fall on the wayside..
A very interesting development:- Move of the movie stars from the big screen to the small screen (TV)
Salman Khan (Big Boss)
Amir Khan (Satyamev Jayate)
Big B (Kaun Banega Crorepati)
and many more on the sidelines ..
Does it no longer make economical sense to make "Movies" ??
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I think slowly but surely movie making is no longer as profitable as in the past.. (even with entry of bank finance).. is it competition .. (TV is also very competitive market.. with 1000 channels)
I personally feel its no longer economical .. due to high level of money(wealth/energy) required..
A TV Studio environment (less energy required) maybe the subtle reason..
The fact that we no longer go to the theater to see movies and watch it on HBO/Sony/Internet is due to energy equation..(Cost/Benefit analysis)
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Reliance Industries is talking about thin film solar power as the future.. World's largest single location refinery complex owner speaks of solar as the future..
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EU-US Developed countries march against "phthalates" (Plastics .. derived from crude oil)
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Carbon Foot print.. encourage going "Local" reducing fuel consumption in transportation of goods..
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All these are not so subtle nudges with regards to energy crisis..
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Future it seems will be more towards art and culture.. we will soon have role models who will be minimalist .. Artists.. sports men/women/traders.. not business tycoons.. Industrialist
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the young will be more interested in music, sports arts, trading than being doctors and engineers.. Animated cartoon movies..
I think the time has come and we will see that shift..
Already something like centralized "cloud computing" is reducing the need for hardware/software engineers..
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- Social Meetings happen on "Facebook"
- Business Meetings happen using "telepresence"
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Wake UP!! is the call.. look at the subtle changes..
staying on the 20th floor when there is an electrical outage.. No Way!!
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Plan your investment.. and keep a watch on the "Energy equation of the business"
Auto/Infrastructure/Toll bridges/Airlines are a strict NO!!
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
I would like to believe that its not that movies are not economical to make... its rather now that with increasing penetration of TVs in India @ ~ 67% (even my dhobi has a flat screen TV in his shanty!!) its become a highly lucrative medium for production houses and movie stars.The reach is many times more than a movie. Further, digitization also provides a tail wind to the TV industry and is a big once in a life time change in the industry. i like to think of it as where the mobile industry was in 2002-03 in india.
the movie screen penetration in india is quite low compared to some of the other markets while at the same time bollywood is the largest movie industry in the world in terms of box office sales. Further, the movie business itself is undergone sea of change with now the magical three digit collection figure ie 100cr is becoming common to hear. Take the recent examples of few movie stars signing multi-100 crore deals with production houses. This would nt happen if things were looking down.
To conclude my views, its all about the fallout from the demographic dividend - higher income, higher spending power, higher aspirations. I think the TV industry presents a great opportunity for investors as well as other stakeholders like movie stars etc to capitalize on the changing favorable environment.
I personally believe that one should be looking at investing in some publicly listed companies in this space - broadcasters, cable network, DTH, production houses. One can expect great returns over the next 5 years.... and as mentioned elsewhere you would need to do your own deep dive to figure the right stocks...
happy investing
- Inoculated Investor -
Innoculated Investor ji:
looking at it from an energy/cost effectiveness point of view..
movie tickets cost 100 bucks per seat while for 300-400 bucks in cable you get one month of entertainment.. for the whole family at your doorstep..
nothing to beat that.. in addition you get live broadcast like matches and news as it happens.. making cable/dth a must have..
Do you have any stock suggestions to share for investors .. it would be great..
should it be content providers or cable/dth providers or both..
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
You hit the nail right on the head... Good thinking!
I certainly would like to share IDEAS, however I would stress again that each investor needs to do his own bit of study before deciding to act on any of the names mentioned below -
For one i believe that broadcasters will be a better play on digitization and would be one of the key beneficiaries as not only will the subscription revenues go up but also with UNREPORTED subscribers substantially decreasing, AD revenues too will start to go up over the next few years.
Now within this space, you would want to look at either market leaders in their genre or one who has bouquet of channels to offer (increasing the bargaining power of the broadcaster). In the listed space, there are 3 potential names that come to fore - Zee, Sun and the late entrant - TV18. Sun is more of a regional play and hence it comes down to Zee and TV18. Zee clearly has the advantage of being an incumbent in the industry and having been around now for 20 years, it is now generating good free cashflows y-o-y. Its trading at valuations (not cheap) 20-22x and has a marketcap of ~20k cr.
TV18 has gone through its own tribulations over the last few years and the minority shareholders havent been rewarded as such. HOWEVER, what has changed now (from a minority shareholders perspective)
1. they have restructured the business with all channels now on one platform or company
2. they have two giants as shareholders in the company - Viacom (one of the largest global media house) and now Mukesh's reliance.
3. they have a reasonable bouquet with quite a few of them being among the leaders in their respective genres. (eg. colors, CNBC-tv18, CNN-IBN, History etc)
4. Over the last 5-7 years one has witnessed slew of channels being launched and seen consolidation happening. TV18 is among the few companies which have been able to meet success in terms of marketshare with new channel launches.
5. Only 1st phase of digitization is complete and the effect of which will actually start showing over the next few quarters.So far local cable operators took the lions share of the subsr revenue and now should eventually start flowing to broadcasters as well. This will lead to quantum jump in the topline over next few years. Currently, split for Zee in terms of Ad:Subcr revenue is about 50:50, whereas, for TV18 is 20:80. This needs to correct + to further add volume increase as well with greater reported Subcr nos.
6. Zee's marketcap is 20k cr while tv18 is 4400 cr for a comparable bouquet for a similar level of ad revenue.
7. That said, one negative for the company is absence from the sports channels and would likely require substantial capital commitment (Zee continues to make losses on Ten sports of 100cr p.a.)
8. In the recently concluded rights issue, some biggest and largest known investors have picked up the shares of the company. Post rights issue, the stock had gone from 20 to ~ 37 and is now back to decent 25-27 levels.
9. As digitization kicks in and the company starts generating some cashflows along with 4g launch of reliance (which could also be a game changer for the company), the company could be a multi-bagger over the next 3 year horizon
happy investing
-Inoculated Investor -
Disclaimer: I own shares of the the companies mentioned above. The views presented above are personal and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy. Readers/ investors are recommended to do their own research before investing.
Inoculated Investor ji:
I think with cable digitization..
monthly cable charges are going to increase.. and hence DTH prices will become competitive..
I prefer Dishtv .. at current levels
though zeetv below 140 is a great buy..
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
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