I would assume atleast 2.5 - 3 milllion cases would be just Mansion house brandy.. and rest would be Courrier Napoleon (semi-premium range)
the question is what are the ground realities... actual data from the ground level .. Liquor being a controlled product and heavily taxed and a source of revenue.. govt data is available.. though not easy to mine or to extract..
I have got data for Kerala State and presenting raw data here for every one.
- Every month what ever liquor is selling its replaced from warehouse.. so that each store has the liquor which is selling (in demand) and not something the public does not want..
As can be seen for location : "BLM Overbridge" most selling Brandy is Mansion House.
with 10.60% replacement market share
The other important thing worth mentioning is that this list did not contain.. Honey Bee Brandy or Mcdowell No1 Brandy..(largest selling brandy brands in India & the world) so either Mcdowell No1 & HoneyBee is being discontinued .. or the cheaper brands have to be pushed by the Supplier and demand is not generated!! (I'm guessing/speculating based on data available..)
Another important thing is Kingfisher brand of beers seems to be trailing to " British Empire Ultra Premium Beer" [SNJ Breweries Pvt limited] by huge margin..
this is not good news for United Breweries shareholders.. I hope they have their ears on the ground to face the challenge .. and nip it at the bud!!..
Raw data for "BLM Over bridge" location in kerala has been provided for all to evaluate and make an informed decision.. (its a bit too long so please right click and open on a new tab to see it in detail)
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you can see data for whiskey - vodka & rum also for "BLM Overbridge" location to get an idea about what's selling in Kerala in March/April 2019!
PN: "BLM Over bridge" is just one sample location and not necessarily a good sample.. so please do your own deep dive to come to any conclusion... this is my own study for my own personal review.. not a comprehensive industry wide database..
Conclusion: Tilaknagar has a MCap of just: 188cr ..& sales of 1800cr (approximately for march 2019 guess-estimate) and its the market leader based on ground realities (data from kerala) .. Its definitely very cheap for a market leader in Premium brandy space.. and over the next 10 yrs we can easily expect Tilaknagar to be a multibagger (once it gets its debt fixed..) Tilaknagar is an 86yrs old company so Tilaknagar Industries has seen its fair share of up & down days & should be still around for decades to come.. Good time to add/invest when stk is at rock bottom..
United Breweries seems to have a new challenger[SNJ Breweries Pvt Limited] and needs to pull up its socks ..else it could very well see the floor disappear from under its feet..
PN: I am not a sebi registered investment advisor, this is just data based on my person research and its not comprehensive... Please do your own research and consult a registered investment adviser before investing.. I do have investments in Tilaknagar Industries.
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21 comments:
Hi Whatsupji,
Your stock recommendation of manugraph industries is down from Rs 50 to Rs 18. Your views?
started adding TI, given up on william magor.. holding companies are always tricky anyway
This is not the correct time to invest in Kingfisher. But if you are interested in the commodity market, contact me. Free Commodity Tips.
After visit this blog i know about some stocks actual market predictions and news behind it, how's they perform for future trading.
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Tej ji..
Yes a lot of stks have collapsed.. it's like the floor has been removed from under the feet of stks.. manugraph is no different..
But let's look at shareholding data for manugraph:
March 2019: 10,383 shareholders
Dec 2018: 10,481 shareholders
Sept 2018: 10,669 shareholders
Jun 2018: 10,794 shareholders
Mar 2018: 10,937 shareholders
Dec 2017: 11,221 shareholders
Sept 2017: 12,426 shareholders
Jun 2017: 12,797 shareholders
So the stk price has fallen.. the stk has been accumulated.. as no of shareholders is reducing consistently..
Stk price is not disclosing this information.. manugraph is a good buy at current prices.. cmp: 17.85
--happy investing
Whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
Your view on jayant agro please.
Looks too tempting at current level. But need to understand the causes behind the crash before buying.
What is ur opinion about recent one time debt settlement with SBI and on FUND RAISING PLAN....
Thanks for sharing with us.
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