Highlights:
1. Mutual fund ownership has risen by 1,00,000 shares between Dec 2010 and March 2011 (Shares held per Mutual Fund: March 2011: 6,59,481.78 Dec 2010: 6,52,338.92)
2. HSBC Midcap Equity fund now owns 1.03% in GAEL (HSBC Mutual funds as a group own 28.89 lakh shares in GAEL (link))
3. There has been selling by corporates and there has been an increase of 488 individual shareholders between Dec 2010 and March 2011. (shares held per individual investor: March 2011: 616.65, Dec 2010: 619.51)
4. There has been an increase in the no of HNI by 1 to 28 and avg shares held by HNI is: (1,10,459 shares per HNI Dec No: 1,10,680shares per HNI)
5. A 1 Year return on investment on GAEL is 92.57% which is exceptional (more because of the low prevailing prices in April 2010 of 17.50 - Dream prices)
Conclusion: Fundamentally CMP: 33.75 MarketCap: 466.94Cr Sales(TTM):1692.83Cr PBDIT(TTM):153.1Cr Net Profit (TTM):86.82Cr Long term Debt 18Cr (March 2010). GAEL is still a Value story. Also 1st Quarter(Jan -March) has traditionally been a weak quarter for stock prices because of Tax outflows, Tight market conditions and provides a very good period for buying into Stocks .. I see GAEL rising to target levels of 100+ but would have a target time frame of 18-24 months due to tight liquidity conditions.. (short term interest rates (3 months is close to 9% and was above 10% in March 2011)
Posts
13 comments:
hey ..Amazing research man.. too good..jus pointing out one small mistke not imp though but still
in the 1st point where you are giving the comparision of Mar 2011 and Dec 2010...there u have writtn as Dec 2011..soo..rest all is gr8 man...
btw as u mentioned it has gained 92% in yr...if u can whts ur avg buyiin price of GAEL..thnkx
Kalpesh:
My avg cost is around 10 bucks per share ..
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
Hi What's Up Prahalad,
Did you track Liqor stocks ? How you read G M Breweries at current market price? Kindly share your fundmanetal analysis for small investors. Thanks
Anonymous:
Looks like a great value buy..
Thanks for pointing it out.
The best part is the low floating stock..and small number of shareholders..
just like Jayant Agro .. and a good dividend payment..
I think GM Breweries is a winner all the way..
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
Hi What's Up, Thanks for prompt reply. As you mentioned number of share holders is less. BSE it showing 68873. Is it less ?? But jayant agro it is only 6000+. And one more thing what is your view about country liqor business? Any future ?
Anonymous:
I think there is a future for country liquor as its an addiction..
People who cannot afford will go for country liquor .. Actual investors in GM Breweries is just 7100 investors
there are 61,850 FII investors each holding 1 share.. which means they are not really available..
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
61850 FII holding 1 share each !!!! I cant belive it. They are making fool to other or any other intention to hold 1 share each ??
Anonymous:
One problem with country liquor is the 10-20% ethanol mix in petrol..
As per new govt norms and guidelines there is a govt "schedule" to increase the "ethanol" mix in petrol/diesel..
This will bring about a support price for "Extra Neutral Alcohol (ENA)" which is used in country liquor..
Most of the distilleries are moving into "Grain based distilleries" which provide a better taste/blend..
I dont know if this is the reason you were asking for "future of country liquor"
Hope that helps .. a Good company that has gone through these changes is IFB Agro which has an ENA and grain based distillery ..
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
Anonymous:
GM Breweries has very few shareholders and is a market leader ..
dividend paying company with good fundamentals..
I think its a buy .. but at lower levels.. (if you can get it.. 90- 100)
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
Hey Prahalad, what are your views on Surya Pharmaceutical from a long term perspective (3-4 years). I find it to be undervalued and like their business a lot. I particularly like their VIVA Chemist chain. They have been making a couple of expansions and once they are done with it, their bottom line could improve and lead to a serious re-rating. Let me know your thoughts. Thanks.
Apoorv:
Surya Pharma:
CMP: 25
Market Cap: 481.88Cr
Debt: 708Cr
Reserves: 288.72Cr
Promoter shareholding: 43.63%
Promoters have pledged a lot of shares (70% of promoter shares are pledged) which could bring the stock under pressure..
in 9 months the company has already reported profits equal to last year profits..
ROCE is good and cash flows are also positive.
Considering debt of 708Cr and market cap of 481.8
Enterprise value: 1188Cr which is a fair valuation..
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot[dot]com
despite of your hu and cry, gael is languishing at 31. dont give liquidity reasons. no one will buy that reason.
do you not think it will crash to 22?
Anonymous:
Its a take it or leave it offer..
I am not making money recommending you to buy or sell..
So best of luck if you have any other stock recommendations..
=====================
Personally the reasons the stocks are not performing is the short term interest rates..
=happy investing
whatsup-stockideas.blogspot.com
Post a Comment