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Monday, August 25, 2014

Jayant Agro:Chart Reading: Predicting the future

As the markets are rising there are a number of requests for price targets.. which got me looking at the charts for Jayant Agro.. 

PN: Charts are predicting the future based on past history of stock price movement.. These predictions will only stand true if it follows historical price movement..

Personally I feel this is a breakout year for Jayant and we could see the stock become a multibagger..
I have taken the maximum possible range for my Exponential Moving Average i.e. 999
Since 200Day EMA is considered as 1 year.. (There are 52 weeks in a year,  considering only Monday-Friday= 260days ) minus the Holidays 60 days we get 200 Day EMA = 1 year..

So 999 Day is like 5 yrs (200 x 5 = 1000) 

So long term trend is 5 yrs and then I have taken the 200 day EMA for signalling...

3 year term: If you see the chart the peaks and troughs considered are:
2005 low: 34.04 .. 2008 High 122.75 (360.60% increase in 3yr period)

2010 low: 62.29 .. 2012 High: 152.50 (244.82% increase in 3yr period)

So the bull cycle starts when 200Day EMA crosses 999Day EMA from the bottom and lasts 3 yrs and we have 2 confirmed cycle in past 9 yrs..

Bear cycle starts when stock price falls below the 200Day EMA
FALSE START: If you see there is a False start in the middle 2007.. where the stock price did not go below the 999Day EMA and resumed its journey back up again.. to a new 52 week high..

Similar "False Start" in 2011-12 period giving traders a chance to dip in twice!! in the 3 yrs period doubling your returns!!
Conclusion: So the time period is 3 yrs.. Trigger is after the 200Day EMA crosses 999Day EMA .. till stock hits a new 52 week high (250-350% from base) and signals a sell when the 200Day EMA is broken.. 

Next cycle starts after the 200Day EMA falls below 999Day EMA and again  200Day EMA rises above  999 Day EMA. Next bull cycle start

Latest bull cycle started at 95.4 
Current Market Price:109.70
Current 200Day EMA: 102.65
Current 999Day EMA: 103.29
Target Price 250-360% from base of 95.40 = 238.40- 343.40
Time Period: 3 yrs starting June 2014 - till June 2017 

If you see the 999Day EMA(Green line)  its been continiously rising so even if on the outside the stock seems to be underperforming but the base 999Day EMA in past 10 yrs has increased from 34.04 to 95.04 which is extremely bullish for investors in Jayant Agro organics..

PN: As soon as the trend is known to the general public ..the rules of the game are changed.. so its quite possible that the trend no longer stands the test of time.. Please do your own deep dive before investing.

Sunday, August 10, 2014

Jayant Agro:Quarter 2014: Result Review

Jayant Agro results for quarter ending June 30,2014 is out. Let us review the results with horizontal (Y-Y)and vertical (% Sales)  comparision

Horizontal Comparision:
Jayant results are seasonal in nature due to castor seed being the primary raw material which is agro based input.. year on year comparision is the best option. Comparing the "Quarter June 2014 to  Quarter June 2013" results we get the following observation

Total Income from Operations: UP 14.88% (Positive)
Sales on a Y-Y basis has increased which is a positive development.

Total Expenses:                        UP 15.72% (negative)
- Cost of Material:                      UP 12.81% (positive)
- Purchase of Stock in Trade:      UP 49.59% 
- Change in Inventory of Finished Goods: UP 33.45%

Total Expenses are up 15.72% which is more than rate of increase in income (14.88%) so that's a negative development as costs(expense) has increased at a higher rate than sales increase eating into profits..
Sales increase: 14.88%
Expense increase: 15.72% 
Difference: 0.84%
Digging deeper into Expenses.. "Cost of Material" is up 12.81% which is positive as increase in "cost of material" is less than increase in sales (14.88%) Cost of goods is not the real reason for increase in expenses..
"Purchase of stock in trade"(up 49.5%)  and "change in inventory of finished goods"(up 33.45%)  seem to be the main culprit for increase in expenses.. (though employee expenses and other expenses have also increased at a higher rate than increase in sales..)

Profit from Operations: Down 4.67% (Negative)
The 0.84% increase in expenses has resulted in a 4.67% decrease in Profits from operations  since actual sales increase was 14.88% we should have seen an increase in profits.. so the actual drop in profits is like (4.67+14.88 = 19.55%) comparative decrease in profits..

Clearly the purchase of stock in trade and change in inventory has impacted profits in a big was as Jayant has leveraged operations. The only positive is that its not cost of goods but more of inventory and stock in trade doing the trick..

Other Income: UP 2140.68%
Huge spike in other income(294.65 lakhs Last year: 13.15 lakhs) .. looking at the results there is an interest income of 206.69 lakhs (2.06cr) which was missing last year (june 2013=0.92 lakhs). My take is that company used to report "Net finance cost"  ie. (Finance cost - interest income) and now they have separated the two due to new reporting regulations (I think).. so we should see increase in interest income and in finance cost.. 

Profit Before Finance cost: UP: 13.43% (negative)
Profit increase is less than the increase in sales.. so its negative  
Sales increase: 14.88%
Profit Increase: 13.43% 
Difference: 1.45%  while Difference in case of expenses was 0.84% Profit before finance cost is also being supported by 2.06cr Interest income.. So actuall Profit before finance is much worse..

Finance Cost: UP 80.40% (negative)
Finance cost as we discussed is up due to interest income going up.. lets reduce the interest income
True Finance Cost(2014) : Finance Cost: 1139.48 Less Other income: 294.65 = 844.83 lakhs
Finance cost (2013): 631.65 lakhs 
Increase in finance cost: (844.83-631.65)/631.65 = 33.74%

Clearly finance cost have increase at a rate higher than increase in sales or increase in expenses.. but then inventory has increased 
Real inventory (2014):(Purchase of stock in trade + Change in inventory of finished goods) (7207.76 - 5614.36)= 1593.4 lakhs
Real inventory (2013): (4818.32 - 4207.11)= 611.21 lakhs
% increase in inventory: (1593.4-611.21)/611.21 = 160.69%
On a Y-Y basis inventory (Purchase of stock in trade + Change in inventory) has increase 160.69%

Conclusion: finance cost has increased but so has inventory of goods.. so it could be stocking up for future sales or it could be a negative development due to pile up of the inventory (unsold goods) we will know in the future..

PBT: Down 32.20%
TAX: Down 45.39%
Net Profit: Down 25.09%

PBT,TAX, Net Profit all are down.. the good part is "Taxes are down" by a greater percentage than PBT or Net Profit.. my understanding that Modi govt has given tax incentives.. to corporates.. and looks like that is what is happening.. companies are reporting higher expenses and hence lower taxes..

Conclusion of Y-Y comparision:
Sales have increased 14.88% which is a positive..
Expenses have increase 15.72% but its not the cost of  goods but inventory and purchase of stock in trade which has resulted in increase in expenses..
Other income is up and finance cost if up.. looks like as part of new reporting guidelines..companies have to report interest income as a separate line item which has resulted in increase in finanace cost.. the other major cause of increase in finanace cost is due to increase in inventory or stock in trade(my assumption) based on sharp increase of 160.69%..

my take is that the results have been disappointing primarly due to clever accounting..as sales have increased and "cost of goods" is still well under control.. The main target could be reduction in taxes.. which is the reason for higher inventory reporting, higher interest payments and drop in profits..  Higher inventory could indicate higher sales in subsequent quarters.(positive spin)

PN: these are my personal intepretation of results based on publicly available information and could be wrong. Please do your own deep dive

Vertical Analysis.. everything is compared on a % of sales basis..

1. Cost of goods for June 2014 quarter is less than March 2014 or June 2013..
Also Year end cost of goods is lower.. so Jayant does have higher cost of goods during the 1st half and maybe lower cost of goods in 2nd half (higher profit margins in 2nd half??)

looking at year end Cost of Goods 2013(68.30%)  & 2014(73.76%)  Cost of goods is definitely trending up.. but the company has been able to maintain its profit margins
2013 (NP Margin: 2.19%)
2014 (NP Margin: 2.64%)

2. Purchase of stock in trade is the primary reason for increase in expenditure..

looking at the figures clearly nothing seems out of order in june 2014 results..  new segment reporting of interest income has been normalized in the income statement.. Taxes are lower.

If you read the notes section of the report.
- Depreciation is higher and depreciation for previous years has been directly reduced from the company reserves.. depreciation at consolidated level is higher by 17.64 lakhs for the quarter June 2014

- Inventory calculation method has been changed from "First in first out" to "weighted avg.." which has resulted in consolidated profits being lower by 1cr for the quarter june 2014

Conclusion: My take is June 2014 is just another quarter.. with not much changes .. lower profits higher inventory.. are part of reporting.. and donot see anything extra ordinary or out of place.. "Its Business as usual"
Link to June 2014 Results Company Website