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Sunday, May 22, 2011

Gujarat Ambuja Exports: Moneysights Rating: Strong Financials, Strong Upside

Here is a copy of the ratings given by Website www.moneysights.com for Gujarat Ambuja Exports
All Thanks to "Kalpesh Bhai" for sharing his knowledge and info with readers of this blog.

As can be seen GAEL has good financial strength and is poised for a leap in stock price. A "Must Buy" at these prices for any portfolio. Infact GAEL has outperformed Gold also!! 

Saturday, May 21, 2011

Gujarat Ambuja Exports: Funds invested in Gujarat Ambuja Exports

Here is the list of funds invested in Gujarat Ambuja Exports.

The list seems to be only of Foreign Funds invested in Gujarat Ambuja Exports as it does not have Reliance Growth Fund listed which holds 4.55% of GAEL's Equity

Dimensional Fund Advisors seems to "Like" GAEL and the Star ratings are Morning Star rating of the funds..

Conclusion: We have good company and we just need to hold on to our "Cheap" GAEL stocks. In case you have not bought you can make an entry at these levels as company is all set to report 85-90Cr net profit(Est. March 2011) and current market cap of GAEL is just 421Cr "Deep Value Buy for a Fundamentally Strong Company" 

Friday, May 20, 2011

Jayant Agro Organics: March 2011 Quarterly Results and Annual Results

Jayant Agro has reported its Quarterly results on May 14,2011
CMP: 88
Market Cap: 132Cr

Jayant has reported on a consolidated basis:

Year ending March 2011:
1. - Sales: 1171.99Cr (Year 2010: 905.67Cr) Growth of: 29.40%
2. - PBDIT (Profit Before Depreciation Interest and Taxes): 63.45Cr (Year 2010 : 41.32Cr) Growth of  53.55%
A higher PBDIT growth number over growth in Sales clearly indicates that there has been an expansion in margins. (2011: 5.41% 2010: 4.70%)
3. - Net Profit: 24.57Cr (Year 2010: 12.4Cr) Growth of 98.14% 
A Higher Net Profit growth percentage than PBDIT growth indicates there has been a reduction in Depreciation, interest or tax expenses and we can clearly see Depreciation (2011: 0.46% Vs 2010: 0.52%) and Taxes (2011: 0.91% Vs 2010: 1.17%) have contributed to increase in Net Profit.

EPS number for Jayant agro: 
2011: Rs 16.38 (Face Value: 5)
2010: Rs 8.31 (Face Value: 5)

Company has grown Topline by 30% and Bottom line by 98.14% due to margin expansion and somewhat by reduction in taxes and depreciation. Please Note these are "Consolidated" numbers and most of the market data reviewed by analyst is on "Standalone" numbers.

Conclusion: The time is near for Jayant Agro Organics stock price to reflect the increase in fundamentals. 
- Year ending March 2008 Net Profit: 9.51Cr
- Year ending March 2009 Net Profit: 7.49Cr
- Year ending March 2010 Net Profit: 12.63Cr
- Year ending March 2011 Net Profit: 24.57Cr

From 2008 to 2010 in last 3 years Jayant agro has earned 29.63Cr in March 2011 Jayant Agro has earned 24.57Cr. Almost equal to earning for last 3 years!! in 1 Year!!
So Year ending March 2011 Jayant has done exceptionally well. It is but a matter of time before the stock reflects the earnings growth. This is an opportunity for investors to pile on cause the stock is ready to rock. (Psst: Stock seems to remain low till 1st half of the year and does much better in the latter half (link)
- Promoters have also spoken about bonus in the future (link)

Monday, May 09, 2011

Jayant Agro: Back up the Truck

I was looking at Jayant Agro Organics numbers.
9 month ending Dec 2010 Jayant Agro has:
Consolidated Sales: 843Cr
Consolidated PBDIT: 51.71Cr
Net Profit: 20.31Cr
on an Equity of 7.5Cr and Face Value of each shares as Rs 5 EPS works out to be: 13.54 

Pls note this is for 9 months data. the PE at share price of Rs 100 is 7.38

Now let us look at the historic PE of Jayant Agro Organics.

The highest PE in 4.33 yrs is : 38.62 on Jan 2008
The lowest PE in 4.33 yrs is: 6.28 on Dec 2008

The current PE of 7.38 is actually rock bottom PE of Jayant for past 4.33 yrs.
(Because this PE is calculated over 9 months)  and we still have 1 Quarter of Results "This is Rock Bottom"
if you look at the Big Picture!!

Conclusion: Jayant Agro is a castor derivatives market leader and the market is yet to discount the huge increase in earnings that Jayant Agro has reported in past 9 months (Link). Assuming even a conservative 15 PE  jayant should be valued at 203 (assuming 9 months of earnings data) So this is a conservative estimate and a recommendation to buy with at least 12-18 months horizon and 100% appreciation from these levels..