LIC OF INDIA stock

LIC Of India

CMP: 803.00

Market Cap: 5,08,024cr

Book Value: 154

Face Value: 10

52 week high/low: 1222/715

Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) is the largest insurance provider in India. It has a market share of about 66% in new business premium. The company offers participating and non-participating insurance products like unit-linked insurance products, saving insurance products, term insurance products and annuity & pension products.

Largest Insurance Company

LIC is India’s largest life insurer and the world’s leading insurance brand. LIC is the 4th largest insurer in the world based on life and accident and health reserves, as ranked by S&P Global Market Intelligence.Its market share across categories is:

By Premium: 61.07% in H1 FY25

By Policies: 68.7% in H1 FY25 

By Number of Agents: 47.56% in H1 FY25 

Product Portfolio

The company has a portfolio of 16 participating insurance products, 25 non-participating products including 4 annuity products, 11 group products including 1 credit life and 1 annuity product, and 8 riders. Its product mix includes traditional endowment plans, whole life plans, term insurance plans, pension plans, unit-linked insurance plans, health insurance, and microinsurance products.

New Launches

In H1 FY25, the company launched 4 new Non-Par products- LIC’s Yuva Term, LIC’s Digi Term, LIC’s Yuva Credit Life, and LIC’s Digi Credit Life. In Oct 2024, it launched LIC’s Single Premium Group Micro Term Insurance Plan and 2 new individual Non-Par products, namely, LIC’s Nivesh Plus and LIC’s Bima Jyoti.

Key Operational Metrics

Total Premium Income (Rs. Cr): 4,75,070 in FY24 

New Business Premium (Rs. Cr): 57,716 in FY24

Renewal Premium (Rs. Cr): 2,46,052 in FY24

AUM (Rs. Cr): 51,21,887 in FY24 

Embedded Value (Cr): 7,27,344 in FY24

Solvency Ratio: 198% in FY24

Claim Settlement Ratio: 98.15% in FY24

GNPA: 2.01% in FY24 

Conservation Ratio: 89.84% in FY24

Number of Policies Sold (Cr): 2.03 in FY24

Distribution Network

The company’s distribution network includes 14.4 lakh exclusive agents, 83 corporate agents, 153 insurance marketing firms, 19,000+ micro-insurance agents, 92 bancassurance partnerships, 40,000 premium points, 300 brokers, and 3,636 branch and satellite offices across 36 states and Union territories, covering 92% of districts in India. It also operates overseas branch offices in the UK, Fiji, and Mauritius.

Distribution Mix FY24 (New Business Premium)

Agency: 96%

Banca: 3.6%

Others: 0.4% 

State-Wise Revenue Mix FY24

Maharashtra: 13%

West Bengal: 11%

UP: 10%

Tamil Nadu: 7%

Karnataka: 7%

Gujarat: 6%

Rajasthan: 5%

Others: 49% 

Digital Initiatives

The company offers a digital customer portal and LIC Digital Mobile App, a digital channel for collections, an in-house core insurance package, e-FEAP for fully digitalized internal operations, and Enterprise Document Management Systems (EDMS) to facilitate servicing and information delivery to its customers. The LIC customer APP users have grown from 57.5 lahks in FY22 to 72.9 lahks in FY24, and website registered customers grew from 195 lahks in FY22 to 241 lakhs in FY24. 

Focus

The company aims to increase market share across all categories, diversify its product mix by enhancing the share of non-participating policies in the individual segment and addressing gaps in its product portfolio with new launches. It also aims to strengthen its agency channel while expanding its banca and alternate distribution channels.

Insights into hidden Value 

Cash Flows

If you look at the cash flow statement of LIC for past 6 yrs..

Interest/Dividend Received:

2019: 1,99,144cr

2020:2,31,231cr

2021:2,48,888cr

2022:2,50,560cr

2023:2,68,931cr

2024:2,93,174cr (47.21% more than 2019)

Interest/Dividend Received has increased steadily & its 47% higher in 5yrs.

Each year: (Investment Purchased)<(Interest/Dividend Received)+(Investment sold)+(Cash flow from Operations) in cr

2019: 316629<199144+133824+13274 

2020: 426193<231231+152516+54367

2021: 499555<248888+274807+80602

2022: 427781<250560+190388-3783

2023: 543739<268931+224908+54,519

2024: 576037<293174+261904+26122

2025: 576090<309844+307792-9145

If you look at amount of investment purchased which has grown from 3,16,629cr (2019) to 5,76,090cr (2025) 81.94% in 6 yrs...

Current Market Cap is: 5,08,024cr ( cmp 803) which is less than the amount of investments purchased by LIC in year 2025.

Net Investment Purchased = (Investment Purchased)-(Investment sold)

2019= 1,82,805cr

2020=2,73,677cr

2021=2,24,748cr

2022=2,37,393cr

2023=3,18,831cr

2024=3,14,133cr

2025=2,68,298cr

In 7yr total net Investment reinvested=18,19,885cr  18.19 lakh cr

Divide by 7 ie on avg 2,59,983cr  (2.59 lakh cr) is being reinvested every year.

We can purchase 100% of LIC stk for 5,08,024cr (5lakh cr) & LIC is generating free cash to reinvest of 2,59,983cr (2.59 lakh cr) every year for past 7 yrs..

So in 2yrs LIC buys Investment worth 5,19,966cr 

So in 2 yrs LIC intrinsic Value doubles( at current valuations.. )

An investment whose assets double in 2yrs.. is a very valuable investment. Why is it not increasing in price?

 The reason is.. govt. Is voted into power by people. Govt. would want their voters to benefit from disinvestment.. & hence issued the shares at a discount 950/- per share ( price discovery was 2000/- per share by merchant bankers).. but the large players donot want/like such distribution.

After IPO the price was suppressed to make the weak hands sell..

We can see this from shareholder data..

June 2022 no of shareholders: 37,89,053 

June 2025 no of shareholders: 22,77,180

In 3 yrs 15,11,873 shareholders have sold their shares..

More than 5 lakh shareholders per year have sold..( weak hands) 

While big investors have lapped it up.. as LIC is churning out 2,59,983cr as free cash flow every year.

Now for comparison if we look at how much interest/ Dividend/other income is being generated by other insurance company

Interest/Dividend/Other income

LIC Of India:3,09,844cr

SBI life 19,237cr

HDFC Life:11,603cr

Icici Pru life:11,053cr

As can be seen from interest/ Dividend income LIC cash flow from interest Dividend cannot be achieved in next 2 decades also by pvt insurers..

Peer comparison

If you look at ROCE(Return On Capital Employed): 53% for LIC .. best ROCE is 16.8% SBI Life..  

PAT: 48,725cr closest rival: 2488cr SBI life

At PE of 11.88 LIC is a stock for life .. which will continue to give exceptional returns. Fair value of LIC according to me is north of 10,000/- per share

310+million policy holders of LIC which is almost equal to US population of 340 million.

Indian budget 2025 states total receipts(income) of govt of India: 35lakh cr

Total expenditure of govt of India 2025: 51 lakh cr

LIC assets valuation: 57lakh cr

LIC has assets more than the Budget expenditure of govt of India.

You can buy 100% of LIC for 5lakh cr. LIC has assets of 57 lakh cr

Top 100 shareholders of LIC of India Dec 2024

LIC is a liquid stock .. they say only 3% public holding.. more dilution will bring the price down further... nothing could be further from the truth.. 

LIC share at current valuations is worth 10,000/- .. we can purchase it below IPO price.. 

Tilaknagar Industries: Market Leader in Brandy!!.. Kingfisher Loosing ground.??.

We are all well aware than "Mansion House" Brandy is the most popular Liquor brand of Tilaknagar, we also know its a millionaire brand (sells more than a million cases every year) 84% of sales is Brandy for Tilaknagar, Volume wise 4.98 million cases of brandy was sold by tilaknagar in year ending March 2018

I would assume atleast 2.5 - 3  milllion cases would be just Mansion house brandy.. and rest would be Courrier Napoleon (semi-premium range)

the question is what are the ground realities... actual data from the ground level .. Liquor being a controlled product and heavily taxed and a source of revenue.. govt data is available.. though not easy to mine or to extract..

I have got data for Kerala State and presenting raw data here for every one.

- Every month what ever liquor is selling its replaced from warehouse.. so that each store has the liquor which is selling (in demand) and not something the public does not want..

As can be seen for location : "BLM Overbridge" most selling Brandy is Mansion House.

with 10.60% replacement market share

The other important thing worth mentioning is that this list did not contain.. Honey Bee Brandy or Mcdowell No1 Brandy..(largest selling brandy brands in India & the world) so either Mcdowell No1 & HoneyBee is being discontinued .. or the cheaper brands have to be pushed by the Supplier and demand is not generated!! (I'm guessing/speculating based on data available..) 

Another important thing is Kingfisher brand of beers seems to be trailing to " British Empire Ultra Premium Beer" [SNJ Breweries Pvt limited] by huge margin..

this is not good news for United Breweries shareholders.. I hope they have their ears on the ground to face the challenge .. and nip it at the bud!!..

Raw data for "BLM Over bridge" location in kerala has been provided for all to evaluate and make an informed decision.. (its a bit too long so please right click and open on a new tab to see it in detail)

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you can see data for whiskey - vodka & rum also for "BLM Overbridge" location to get an idea about what's selling in Kerala in March/April 2019!  

PN: "BLM Over bridge" is just one sample location and not necessarily a good sample.. so please do your own  deep dive to come to any conclusion... this is my own study for my own personal review.. not a comprehensive industry wide database.. 

Conclusion: Tilaknagar has a MCap of just: 188cr ..& sales of 1800cr (approximately for march 2019 guess-estimate) and its the market leader based on ground realities (data from kerala) .. Its definitely very cheap for a market leader in Premium brandy space.. and over the next 10 yrs we can easily expect Tilaknagar to be a multibagger (once it gets its debt fixed..) Tilaknagar is an 86yrs old company so Tilaknagar Industries has seen its fair share of up & down days & should be still around for decades to come..   Good time to add/invest when stk is at rock bottom..

United Breweries seems to have a new challenger[SNJ Breweries Pvt Limited] and needs to pull up its socks ..else  it could very well see the floor disappear from under its feet..

PN: I am not a sebi registered investment advisor, this is just data based on my person research and its not comprehensive... Please do your own research and consult a registered investment adviser before investing.. I do have investments in Tilaknagar Industries.

Tilaknagar: Liquor consumption in Kerala

Tilaknagar Industries

CMP: 13.50, Market Cap:172.4cr

Kerala is the largest liquor consuming state in India .. and fortunately data is available for Kerala at 

http://ksbc.kerala.gov.in/ website.

The interesting fact is "Brandy" is the most consumed Indian Made Foreign Liquor consumed in Kerala .. RUM is second and then down the line is whiskey..

Top Selling Brands in Kerala:(April 2019)

No:1) No1 Mcdowell  Brandy : 13.19% market share

No:2) No1 HoneyBee Brandy :  7.40% market share

No:3)OLD Port Deluxe RUM : 6.29% market share

No:4)JAWAN SPECIAL XXX RUM: 5.98% market share

No:5)CLASSIC GRANDE MATURED XXX RUM: 3.49% market share

No:6)MCDOWELL NO1 CELEBRATION RUM: 2.78% market share

No:7)COURRIER NAPOLEON GOLD BRANDY: 2.75% market share (Tilaknagar Brand)

No:8)MANSION HOUSE FRENCH BRANDY: 2.52% market share (Tilaknagar Brand)

No:9)FARMERS XXX RUM: 2.38% market share

No:10) WHITE MISCHIEF CLASSIC BRANDY: 2.26% market share

no doubt the market leader is United spirits with 3 brands in top 10 and with 23%+ market share its a commanding lead over everyone else... but we are looking at tilaknagar and where does tilaknagar stand in this "rat race"

Lets add the price/"Landed cost" of 750 ml case for above mentioned top 10 selling IMFL in kerala state

No:1) No1 Mcdowell  Brandy : 13.19%, Landed cost: 631.06

No:2) No1 HoneyBee Brandy :  7.40%, Landed cost: 631.06

No:3)OLD Port Deluxe RUM : 6.29%, Landed cost: 514.81

No:4)JAWAN SPECIAL XXX RUM: 5.98%, Landed cost: 426.55

No:5)CLASSIC GRANDE MATURED XXX RUM: 3.49%, Landed cost: 572.45

No:6)MCDOWELL NO1 CELEBRATION RUM: 2.78%, Landed cost: 585.07

No:7)COURRIER NAPOLEON GOLD BRANDY: 2.75%, Landed cost: 613.33 (Tilaknagar Brand)

No:8)MANSION HOUSE FRENCH BRANDY: 2.52%, Landed cost: 928.32 (Tilaknagar Brand)

No:9)FARMERS XXX RUM: 2.38%, Landed cost: 427.49

No:10) WHITE MISCHIEF CLASSIC BRANDY: 2.26%, Landed cost: 651.15

So as everyone can see.. at the premium end of the market... the top selling IMFL in kerala is "Mansion House Brandy" priced @ 928.32 (landed cost) 

I did some more digging into the top 20 brands in kerala and other top 20 brands with price above 900/- are

Ranked 13 MCDOWELL VSOP BRANDY: 1.65% market share, Landed Cost: 921.15

so in the top 20 selling brands on IMFL in Kerala the largest liquor consuming state in India.. 

Tilaknagar Mansion House brandy is most selling premium IMFL with 2.52% market share

2nd spot goes to MCDOWELL VSOP BRANDY with 1.65% market share..

Tilaknagar "COURRIER NAPOLEON GOLD BRANDY" is the brand that Tilaknagar is planning for competing for market share with United Spirits brands. Honey Bee & MCD No1 Brandy. priced close to Honey Bee & Mcdowell No 1 Brandy..

Landed Cost of Tilaknagar Brands & United Spirits Brands (above)

top selling brands in kerala for the month of April 2019(below)

recently govt has mandated that companies need to report their borrowing levels to the stock exchanges.. and Tilaknagar Industries has reported a borrowing of 280cr .. in BSE website..

United spirits reported 750cr of borrowing

Conclusion: Tilaknagar is going full steam ahead with cleaning its books.. and with premiumisation strategy.. @175cr market cap with 280cr of debt as of March 2019... company seems to have turned the tide.. the books will start looking a lot more presentable next year... expect the stock price to start ticking up.. as market takes notice of the change in fundamentals.. 

PN: this is not a recommendation service.. its my thought process or brain dump..for my own tracking purposes.. please consult a SEBI registered  investment advisor before investing...

Tilaknagar is being accumulated??

Tilaknagar Industries

CMP: 15.30 Market Cap: 191.14cr

Tilaknagar was discussed on December 04,2017(Link) .. the logic was the stock had just turned bullish..stock price was: 21.55... 200Day EMA:14.45,  50 Day EMA:16.59 

So the golden cross was formed (50 Day EMA (16.59) crossing the 200 Day EMA (14.45) from low to high) ... since then tilaknagar stock has corrected to around 200 Day EMA .. but some interesting developments have happened.

New investors have accumulated the stock.

If you see latest june 2018 shareholding data..

The largest public Shareholder in Tilaknagar on june 30,2018 is:

Aqua Proof Wall Plast Pvt Limited holding: 40,58,530 shares.

In March 30,2018 the largest shareholder in Tilaknagar was:

Aqua Proof Wall Plast Pvt Ltd. holding: 26,09,043 shares.

In Dec 30,2018 there was nobody from Public holding more than 1% shareholding.. which means at the max Aqua Proof Wall Plast Pvt Ltd was holding less than 12,47,5612 shares.

so in past 6 months (Jan 2018 to 30 june 2018) Aqua Proof Wall Plast Pvt Ltd has purchased: close to 30 lakh shares of Tilaknagar from the open market..

If we dig deeper.. we find that one of the directors of Aqua Proof Wall Plast is also a director in Anand Rathi Securities.

Also Anand Rathi Securities has given loan to tilaknagar promoters (loan against shares) shares pledged is: 5,00,00,000(5 cr shares) 

===============

In March 2018 results .. balance sheet statement show that tilaknagar has some 66-67cr in cash in hand...

further digging shows that Tilaknagar of 15 May 2018 paid and closed(paid back all dues) .. a loan from Edelweiss Asset reconstruction company..worth 65 cr..

if we piece all the parts together.. 

1. company has been reporting losses but on march 2018 balance sheet.. tilaknagar had some 66-67cr in cash.. 

2. On May 15,2018 tilaknagar pays off some 65cr of loan(closes the loan: Date of Satisfaction) 

3. we see Aqua Proof Wall Plast aggressively buying into tilaknagar stock.. (40 lakh shares in 6 months..)

4. we also see tilaknagar issuing stock options to top management @ rs13/- per share..

If we take all these pieces together ... I'm certain.. Tilaknagar has turned the tide... and is on the way to recovery. very rapid purchase of equity by Aqua Proof wall Plast indicates we are about to see some positive announcement which will change the view of the market toward tilaknagar..

I would say its time to back up the truck and load up on tilaknagar.. 

PN:  I am not providing any investment advice.. its a blog of my thought process  ... for me to review based on which i take my investment decision.. Please do your own deep dive and consult a SEBI registered investment consultant before investing..

Ester Industries: Value Added Products

Ester Industries

CMP: 48.8

MCap: 406.96cr

Sales: 824.5cr

Net Profit: 5.29cr

http://www.esterindustries.com

Customer satisfaction through Innovation, Development and Partnership

Backed by 30 years of industry expertise, Ester manufactures Polyester Films, Specialty Polymers and Engineering Plastic compounds. Polyester Films find applications primarily in flexible packaging while Specialty Polymers find applications into niche areas including rigid packaging, textiles etc. The Engineering Plastics business processes various materials for industries like Automotive, Electrical & Electronics, Appliances and Telecom. We take pride in offering complete solutions to our customers even for their most demanding needs. We also partner with our customers to derive a sustainable competitive advantage through customized development projects.

Ester Industries Stock has corrected from a high of 78 to 48.8 a 37% drop from its 52 week high..

and quoting close to its 5 yrs (999 days) EMA (exponential moving average) of 42.36.

As you can see the stock bounced back from its 999day EMA levels before..

The company has a pretty good cash flow from operations .. 5 yrs Avg Cash Flow from Operations is: 53.74cr (5 yrs Average!! Wow) while 5 yrs avg Net Profit is 0.33cr.. (profits seem suppressed)

If we look at the Income (Profit Loss ) statement the company has been reporting low profits consistently..

Will the low profit margin change in the future??.. I think so.

1. Company in the past few yrs has been trying to increase its Value added business where margins are better.

2. Company signed an agreement with Dupont in past few yrs to do joint development of products using Dupont ingredients.

3. Based on this agreement and Esters R&D ...Ester has developed number of new products & has filed Product & Process Patents (which have been accepted in US)

4. Shaw Industries Group Inc USA which is a Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett) company and largest carpet manufacturer in the world. Shaw Industries has approved "Stain Resistant Master Batch MB-03" This will impart permanent Stain Resistance to nylon carpets  this is agreement for 90cr worth of sales (2500 tonnes) every year..

This Agreement is for sales of about 90cr.. which is like 10% of its annual sales of 800-900cr..

But I believe every carpet manufacturer would like to sell "Permanent stain resistant carpets" so I'm sure other companies(competitors) will also follow suite and purchase from Ester Industries. Stain Resistant carpets could be the norm .. rather than an exclusion... as carpets are long term purchase item and every manufacturer would prefer stain resistant carpets..

If you look at the March quarterly & year end data.. Q4 Quarterly Profits are 5.42cr and Full year end Net Profit is: 5.58cr... Considering 5 yrs avg Operating cash flow of 50cr.. I would say reporting 25cr net Profit should not be that difficult.. with the new patents and related products sales .. I expect significant Margin improvement .. we can expect over the next few yrs that Ester can report 45-55cr net profit.. which is a 10x increase in Net profit..

there are already 4 products which are patent protected which have been accepted by customers..

with agreement with Dupont.. you can directly get acceptability and open number of doors to new clients..

There are some things of concern such as almost 15% shares in public domain are held by one company  Vettle International limited.. and these shares were issued @ rs 10 per share.. Vettle International initially had some 20% stake and has been selling some stock which could put downward pressure on stock price

Ii would say issuing 20% stake to an unknown company is not possible by promoters.. so Vettle is part of public holding .. but definitely known to the promoters indirectly.

Conclusion: Ester produces value added products using commodity petroleum products.. with agreement with Dupont and getting patent protected products in the market is a big leg up and should improve margins. Company has good cash flows and can easily report 10x increase in profit in the near future.. Stock is attractively priced and available close to its 5 yra EMA (42.36)

 Investor Presentation Q4-2018

Birla Precision Technologies: Comeback kid!!

Birla Precision Technologies

CMP: 8.17

Market Cap: 43.02Cr

Sales: 155.37Cr (March 2017)

http://www.birlaprecision.in/company-profile.html

Birla Precision Technologies Ltd (BPT) the erstwhile Birla Kennametal Ltd was established in 1986, as a joint venture company between YBG (Yash Birla Group) and Kennametal Inc, USA In July 2007. YBG acquired the stake of Kennametal in the JV consequent upon which Birla Kennametal was renamed as “Birla Precision Technologies” (BPT). BPT continues to be a primary vendor of Kennametal worldwide –USA, Germany and APAC supplying rotating tool holders in AT3 class. Besides, BPT also exports in a large way to other major customers in the USA, Europe and in recent times to the Far East including China

Leveraging its core competency of machining, forward integration into machining of precision components and castings was a natural progression and catering to global giants like Cummins, Knorr-Bremse, Husco International .

Yash Birla Group sold its Dagger Frost cutting tool division to Samvardhana Motherson Group (SMG) in 2009 .. though the remains of the cutting tool business with Yash Birla Group is a division of Birla Precision called "Indian Tools Manufacturers" https://www.indiantool.com/

The other division is: Birla Kennametal division which makes rotating tool holders AT3 Class.. Here Kennametal shareholding has been bought by Yash birla Group and name of the company was changed from Birla Kennametal to Birla Precision Tools. http://www.birlaprecision.in/index.html

The third division is "machine casting division" which makes Automotive components and exports it to automotive customers like Cummins and Honeywell.. this division was done in collaboration with "Perucchini of italy"

Birla Precision had debt restructuring and as part of it all companies related to automotive tools have been merged into Birla Precision as separate divisions mentioned above.. (consolidation of business) 

Now the promoters have recently (April 13,2018) passed a resolution for preferential allotment of shares to promoter company in Birla Precision. 

The company shares are also at rock bottom prices and turned bullish (golden Cross)

Conclusion: Book value is 18, cmp is: 8.17 and has recently shown some movement..

Considering the consolidation of all automotive and tools related business with Birla Precision and the subsequent preferential allotment to promoters.. Birla Precision looks like a long term bet on the Yash Birla group turning the company profitable.. Birla Precision has all the right ingredients just needs to think big.. and work towards it.. Invest is my view..

PN: this is not an investment advice.. it is my though process and a timeline for my point of view.. Pls consult a SEBI registered advisor.. and do your own deep dive..

=happy investing

whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com

Manugraph: Bullish undertone..

Manugraph

CMP: 47.5 Mcap:144.47cr..

Was just looking at Manugraph.. 

Feb 7,2018 outcome of Board meeting states:

Board approves proposal to merge 100% subsidiaries and group companies with Manugraph..

WOW!!! Thats BIG Really BIG News!!

now if I look at companies with similar addresses as manugraph

it states there are 2095 companies with similar addresses.. I checked a few... not all 2095 companies have same promoters as manugraph..(the one marked is not a promoter company)  but to say the list above is the complete list of companies owned by promoters would also be wrong..

So all said and done.. the statement that promoters are going to merge group companies into manugraph.. means we are going to see value unlocking.. 

predicting when that will happen .. would be speculating.. 

No of shareholders:

Dec 2017: 11,221 

Dec 2016: 11,942

Dec 2015: 12,248

Dec 2014: 11,873

Dec 2013: 12,404

lowest no of shareholders in past 5 yrs!!

Lets close by saying this is an interesting development to be kept in mind.. with bullish undertones..

=happy investing

whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com