- First this is a report that was published by USGS in August 2011 .
- Reserves are always an estimation.. and it is a wide range (reporting only for Interior Marcelleus AU)
- Conservative Estimate: - 44,607 Billion Cubic Feet of Gas (BCFG)
- Realistic Estimate:- 81,374 BCFG
- Wild Guess Estimate:- 139,106 BCFG
The report also states that conservative estimate of Natural Gas liquids is: 1,497 Million Barrels of Natural Gas Liquids (MMBNGL)
. Now on Nov 14,2011 Task leader "Marcellus Shale Gas Resource Assessment" James L Coleman discussed about their report with US Senate committee. (link)
It seems the old estimate of Marcellus Shale reserve was 2 TCFNG and 0.01 BBNGL and latest numbers are 84 TCFNG and 3.4BBNGL
The only large sources of oil reserves are in Deep water and it seems its a difficult task setting up a base and getting the oil out. Its much more economical to extract shale gas "on land" than these "Deep water" oil reservoirs.
Reliance has significant stake in Marcellus Shale. So just don't count out Reliance Industries yet.. and maybe all this weakness in Reliance Stock is for a very very strong upmove in Reliance in the future..
Conclusion: "Contrarian Investing" is a good idea provided we have done some leg work.. Pls note I have no personal interest (investments) in Reliance Industries (all the more reason for Reliance Industries to rise faster ;-p) Donot Sell your reliance stock just yet or at 900 hold for long term.. People like BP buying into Reliance is not a flash in the pan its with much deeper knowledge than we can grasp.
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14 comments:
Awaiting your comments on GAEL Sep Qtr results..
Anonymous:
Even though GAEL reported a loss.. the reserves are up, debt is down.. assets are up by 50Cr..
Q1-Q2 are weak quarters for GAEL add to the fact the forex fluctuation..
Management has taken the opportunity to book losses in forex.. but could report profits in subsequent quarters for forex.. if they have locked in at higher rates..
So as an investor we donot need to worry as this loss is part of the business cycle.. nothing is wrong with GAEL's fundamentals..
Q3,Q4 should definitely be better ..
I would say its a buy for GAEL..
Lowest Market Cap:2006: 252Cr
Lowest Market Cap:2007: 362Cr
Lowest Market Cap:2008: 263Cr
Lowest Market Cap:2009: 204Cr
Lowest Market Cap:2010: 235Cr
Current Market Cap Nov19,2011:264Cr
If you look at the big picture its the lowest price for some time.. and considering the next 2 quarters are more profitable and dividend is given in Feb.. I think its a great price to enter for long term and short term (Less than 12 months)
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
Lowest Market Cap:2006: 252Cr
Lowest Market Cap:2007: 362Cr
Lowest Market Cap:2008: 263Cr
Lowest Market Cap:2009: 204Cr
Lowest Market Cap:2010: 235Cr
Current Market Cap Nov19,2011:264Cr
This is clear indication even if asset increase year by year but market cap not increasing correspondingly. why ?? Any reason market people know which we dont know ? why this stock remain cheap forever ?? please share your thought
Sir i have been following ur blog and i was stunned by ur updates on companies!can u suggest 4 bluechip companies other than ur jayant agro&gujarat ambuja exports..i will be really happy to know from u sir!!!!!!!!!1
Anonymous:
The fact is stocks always oscillate and what I have mentioned is the lower Market Cap band for GAEL...
http://whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com/2009/12/best-value-buy.html
if you see this old article.. GAEL has always given more than 50% return from its 52 week low every year..
The real problem is 90% investment is restricted to index stocks..
If you look at Venky's you will see a similar problem.. the stock from 2000 till 2010 never used to exceed 190 levels..
Everybody knew it was a good strong company and a market leader..but then it was always languishing..
then suddenly in 2010 it took off and today even after a 50% correction its at 450 levels..
======================
1. Promoter buying is a very strong signal..
2. Promoters already own 64% of shares.. there is no need for further increase in stake to maintain control over the board..
3. The fact that promoters are buying even at these levels.. is a confirmation that future price of GAEL is certain to be higher.. much higher..
If you follow consensus you will get market returns.. but for market beating returns.. you need to swim against the tide..
We have done a lot of homework.. and I don't think there is any risk in buying more GAEL as the stock is fundamentally strong.
Its not a question "if" GAEL is a great investment .. its just a question of "When" GAEL stock price will reflect the true value of GAEL.
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
Anonymous:
there are 4 best buy recommendations...
- GAEL
- Jayant Agro Organics
- NHPC
- Tata Communications..
I think Tata Communications and NHPC can be classified as blue chips.. and I would recommend these two as they are "future proof" (According to me)
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
Reakky thanks a lot for ur advise sir..Just an estimate am asking u sir..what rate do u expect in tata communications after 4 yrs from now on???
Anonymous:
the problem for Tata communications is the land deal..
If the land deal is done.. soon then tata communications market cap could be 4 times its current valuation in 4 yrs..
==================
Tata communications is a money spinner.. only because of heavy capital expenditure and no dilution of equity.. (its debt and depreciation levels are high which is impacting its earnings..)
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
Hi,
This s surya,i was really stunned with ur updates..Sir ,when i was watching financials of GAEL Total expenses&debt has been increasing rapidly and the Net profit for sep quater is -ve..Doesnt they affect the company prospects for long run??
Hi,
This s surya,I just wanted to know why many companies are repoting loss becoz of forex and how does it afects this comapny..>>pls do explain sir!
Surya:
Accounting standards allow companies to report losses.
whenever there are wide forex exchange rate fluctuations companies report losses to reduce tax outflow..
Its a one time activity.. There is a difference between uncertainty and fundamental change ..
Forex fluctuation is uncertainty (can happen suddenly and beyond control of company..)
while something like Peak oil is a fundamental change..
Company needs to plan for fundamental change like "Peak oil" by becoming energy efficient/independent ..
while for uncertain activity like forex fluctuation there is a standard response :book losses... (that's why these losses are seen across all sectors..)
I dont see currency fluctuations as a problem for GAEL.. (other than short term impact to company results..)
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
Since ur good in tracking cash flows i just wanted to clarify a thing regarding cash flows:\
1.If cash flow from financing activities -ve means wat does it mean?
2.If cash flows from investing activities is +ve means wat does it mean?
3.cash and cash equivalent at the end of the year mean -ve means wat does it mean?
Kindly elobrate with simple words...Respecting ur words a lot!!!!!!
Anonymous:
If Cash flow is negative that means that activity is not generating cash.. ie. it is using cash.
1. If cash flow from Operations is -ve: your companies basic operations is not generating cash it is using cash.
2. If cash flow from finance is -ve: it is not generating cash .. ie you just paid off some of your debt and hence financing activity is using cash generated from operations or investing(issue of fresh equity)
3. If cash flow from finance is +ve: you are generating cash.. which means you have issued new/additional debt.
Cash and Cash equivalent is the cash in your hand and cash equivalent is cheques.. or other short term instruments which are due within short term and can be considered equal to cash.
I hope that that helps..
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
Anonymous:
-ve cash and cash equivalent means:
when the accounting was done.. (1 specific date in case of india its 31 March of every year..) the company still had some dues which it is supposed to have paid and it has not been paid..
This is serious.. and generally questions should be asked in the AGM why the companies ..cash and cash equivalent is -ve..
It is sometimes due to some unique business incident .. maybe some order just came through at the last moment and hence there is some money due to suppliers (who will be paid when the order is processed by customer..)
-ve cash and cash equivalent with +ve cash flows from financing means the company is running out of cash and also issuing debt .. and not able to manage its finances.. properly..
(Big Red Flag)
Hope that helps
=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com
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