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Wednesday, September 01, 2010

Is it time to Sell Gold!!


Gold prices are ruling the roost and the best performing asset class for some time now.
From its lows in 1998-2000 Gold has risen more than 5 times.. Question is: Is it time to exit out of Gold?



Bloomberg just reported that:
"Soros Fund Management sold 341,250 shares of the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest ETP backed by bullion, in the second quarter, according to an Aug. 16 Securities and Exchange Commission filing. That still left a holding of 5.24 million shares, equal to almost 16 tons."

Question is should we also start selling? 341,250 is ony 6.5% of 5.24 million shares
Gold is a non productive asset. Its only positive point is that in times of turmoil people flock to safety which is Gold. We have already experienced turmoil in financial world and we can also expect more shocks (such as oil peak) The question is will Gold appreciate more?

Rs 10,000 invested in GAEL with ROCE of 16% will be worth 11,600. Gold being a non productive asset we cannot put a target price for Gold's value 1 year down the line. One must remember that "Gold" is an insurance not an investment vehicle.. during times of distress we can see that Gold is marketed as an investment.

Conclusion: Hold gold only for insurance not more than 10% of your portfolio. Infact I would personally suggest 3% levels cause you already have cash 25% and stocks which can be liquidated in short notice. Buy jewelry at least it can be put to some use and provide some satisfaction. Govt of India Gold Bonds could be other source of investment (not available at this point of time) Personally investment in stock which can take advantage of Peak Oil would be a better bet.

PN: this is my personal point of view.. please do your own deep dive. Link to Bloomberg news.

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