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Monday, November 08, 2010

Results on Diwali - 2010


Let us take this opportunity to look at how the suggested stock picks have performed..
I will also try and maintain Diwali day as day for review of stocks every year..

If hypothetically one had invested Rs10,000 in each and every recommendation (there are 16 recommendations) we would have invested 1,60,000. As of Diwali day investments would have generated absolute return of 54.35% on our investment.
- Please note this includes investment such as NILE which was recommended this Diwali itself and is just 2 days since it was recommended..
- I have included the rights issue by Camlin Fine chemicals at Rs 15 which means one has invested more than the Rs10,000 in Camlin to subscribe to buy all the stocks allotted as per rights issue..
- If one had invested Rs 50,000 each in the "Best Buy" stocks..(investment amount 1,50,000)  we would have made a slightly higher percentage  64.88%



As we can see the year to date results for the index we have beaten the Small Cap, Mid Cap and NIFTY and the top performing Bankex..
(again strictly not comparable as investment ideas were given as early as 29 may 2009 (Venky's) though most investment ideas were published starting Dec 2009)

Conclusion: Venky's has really matured as an investment which means one cannot expect Venky's to give 100% price appreciations.. 
- GAEL and Jayant Agro and a few others such as Pitti and Manugraph have started performing.. please note these all should give 100% or more so .. it would make sense to hold with a price target of 100% or more of investment price..

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

hi Prahlad,
can you pls tell me ur take on
1.Sicagen,
2.Rico auto,
3.Electrosteel castings,
4.nakoda ind,
5.Vinati Organics,
6.kamdhenu ispat
7.Electrosteel Steel..

basically i see if a company has good promoter share holding,yoy growth,less than book value,participation of Mutual Funds..is this the right way to analyse the companies

Sorry for the looonggg comment.Hope you dont mind :)

btw my investments in GAEL is rocking
thanks for the valuble inputs...

regards..
Vishwa

What'sUp Prahalad said...

Vishwa:

I have a writeup with regards on: How to value companies..
1. Enterprise Value
2. Sales
3. Debt/Equity
4. ROCE
Company brand value..

Please look at an older posting about Venky's
http://whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com/2010/05/question-and-answers.html

With regards to stocks.. my chief worry is "Growth" I see long term 5-10 years growth being a major problem and hence we need to be prepared for investments that will be able to withstand a global economy with "Zero Growth"
hence a liking for strong/cheap agro stocks like GAEL

=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com

Purushottam said...

prahlad:

I was checking Kilpest Stock and found that their revenue and profits are crusing very well.
Q on Q Sales Growth (%) : 235.56%
Q on Q Net Profit Growth (%) : 128.57%
Debt to Equity Ratio (x): 0.38
Return On Capital Employed (%) 10.91

Also promter is buying on till late september when price was around 15.
Looking at annual report i see they got licence from india to import soyabean insectiside..
your view...

Purushottam said...

Also Check this:
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/kilpest-india-signs-mou-for-jvspains-biotools_487426.html

What'sUp Prahalad said...

Purushottam:

Kilpest looks good except for:
1. New entrant
2. ROCE is 10% which is not that great.
3. Moving from insecticides to biopesticides..

One thing is for sure Chemical industry is also like Agro industry a basic necessity..

The largest players are the Shroff from United Phosphorus.. they practically control the insecticide business.. throughout the world!!

75% of united phosphorous revenues are global in nature..

I would look at Shroff's and look for a new idea from their stable..

I think kilpest just might be bought over by a large player.. a small investment can always be done.. will be speculative in nature..

=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

Hi Prahalad ji

Currently i'm trading in Indian Market.I would like to Trade in US Markets.So wat'z the proceedure to do that.Which brokers in india are associated with US Stock exchanges.

What'sUp Prahalad said...

Anonymous:

I have no idea ..
I was in US and have a Scott trade account for US trades..

=happy investing
http://whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

Hi
wat do u think abt these stocks?
I'm holding these at below mentioned rates.

Coal Inda @ 255
Educomp @ 495
Orchid Chemicals@294

Wat will be the 1 year target for these scrips in ur view?

What'sUp Prahalad said...

Anonymous:

Wipro in year 2000 peak had a market cap of 251,166Cr
In March 2000
Wipro had sales of: 2372Cr
Net Profit of: 248.26Cr

In March 2010
Wipro had sales of: 23,908Cr
Net Profit of: 4,898Cr
But Current Market Cap of Wipro is: 103,388Cr

Wipro is Quoting at 60% discount to its year 2000 peak.
==============================
What I am trying to get to is.. valuations need to be cheap to make money..

To make money you need to buy a Wipro before it becomes a Wipro! else you could end up paying a very high premium and even though Wipro's Topline has grown 1000% percent and bottomline 2000% percent on a cost basis you have not recovered your cost (if you had bought at peak prices in 2000)

==================
Educomp:
Market Cap: 5258Cr
Sales: 1040Cr
Gross Profit: 553Cr
Net Profit: 271.3Cr
Educomp Fully Priced
===================
Orchid Chemicals:
Market Cap: 2084Cr
Sales: 1298Cr
Gross Profi: 494Cr
Net Profit: 339Cr
Orchid Chemicals: Fairly Priced
===================
Coal India
Market Cap: 200,890Cr
Sales: 46,313Cr
Gross Profit: 12,170Cr
Net Profit: 9,622Cr
Coal India: Fairly Priced
Coal india due to the fact that it is a hydro carbon play we can expect better returns as govt is forced to account for true sales at cost + basis rather than the deep discounts as the peak oil becomes a reality..
We are paying a lot less for energy and in the future we will pay a lot more (that's why I like NHPC)
====================
I dont think I can evaluate companies like educomp because you dont know how high it will go?

=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com