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Sunday, April 08, 2012

The Fall of Central Governance: Hello Self Governance.

Looking at he big picture.. we see
- Congress and BJP .. large central (all India) parties not doing so well in Assembly elections in UP.
- Rise of non governmental organisations such as "Anna Hazare" Group, Occupy Wall Street
- Kundankulam Atomic Power Project - Anti-nuclear protest by the locals and People's Movement Against Nuclear Energy.
- Rise of regional political groups.. Kolkata, UP, Bihar, Karnataka etc..

We are surely entering an era of "local" or "self" governance..

with the advent of information age .. there is sufficient level of information available to a person/group ...to make an intelligent/informed decision.. (and this level of information provides enough confidence for individuals (or groups) to question decisions taken at the central level)

Govt worldwide are "stuck" as resistance to central govt decisions are questioned and debated. 

Is this break up of central control "intentional" ?? after all even today I am sure the central govt's have a higher level of information/intelligence to make an informed decision.... then why this breakup of central control??

Are the problems too big to handle hence .. Let's wait-out attitude??

Looking at a future of Post Peak Oil where everything will have to be local? Are we being encouraged into  local self governance .. in subtle ways..

Why is there no national level discussions  on
- "Peak oil"
- "Post Peak Oil Society"
- Zero Growth,
- Being Self Sufficient,
- Self Sustainable?
- Energy Independence.

Is the public being kept in the dark to be fed as the turkey on the dinner table?
with Gas Pipelines to every urban household.. are we going to get cheap gas or we are left with  a "no choice" option?

What are the "Jobs" of the Future?

Wake Up!!


Kalpesh said...

have been following ur blog for long time now..u must b knowing tht too...but this post is somthing diff..a kind of anguish coming out among the ppl...well written and total truth abt the present scenario...

What'sUp Prahalad said...

Kalpesh ji:

We are living in Interesting times..
We could have High inflation..Zero Growth and Rising Stock prices ..All at the same time.

What are your views about the future?? any advice?

=happy investing

Anonymous said...

There is a strong correlation with Peak Oil, Peak Jobs and American power (viz the dollar). What do USA make and export apart from weapons? Green paper called dollars. This dollar has value until the Saudi's demand money in dollar. As long the countries depends on oil, dollar will hold value and so is American hegemony.

If one thinks about it, the more we as Indians start consuming more oil (as in petrol, diesel etc), the more the country's position becomes vulnerable. We had IT boom in 90's to export our human energy (IT professionals) and earn dollars to pay oil bill. China used its human resources to manufacture and earn dollars for oil.

We must start weaning away from oil in the interest of our sovereignty at least.

What'sUp Prahalad said...

Anonymous ji:

no doubt America is the largest consumer of energy resources (actually a large part is wasted..)

US is ..
- the largest producer of natural gas..
- has largest coal reserves
- One of the largest producer of corn, soybean, cotton.
- has a large cattle population.

Yes the american Dollar is in decline.. but if you look at Britain and the British Pound.. it is still a functional currency?? even though British Rule is long gone.

US has large land mass and natural resources. It is the 3rd largest country in the world after Russia and Canada.
Land mass of US is twice the size of European union... so even in a post "Oil" society it has the natural resources to prosper..

If we see most of the petroleum use is in transportation.. so what will be impacted is physical movement of Goods and People.

Most people forget that US was the largest producer of Oil in the world before the Middle east came into picture..

Still US Estimated reserves are close to 40 billion barrels (if you consider all the areas that are not yet open for drilling..)

As far as India is concerned .. we need to build public infrastructure .. Pronto.. slash pvt transportation.. Build Energy efficiency into the economy ..

here is an interesting take..
GDP/unit of energy use.
USA: 5.9
China: 3.7
India: 5.1
Canada: 4.7
Australia: 5.7
Argentina: 7.2
Bangladesh: 7.0
Brazil: 7.6
Denmark: 9.2
Egypt: 5.9
France 7.3
Germany 8.2
Greece: 10.0
HongKong 18.4
Ireland 10.6
United Kingdom 9.8
Italy 9.5
Japan 7.9
Singapore: 12.5
a lot of European countries are well ahead of India and US .. maybe because their GDP is mostly Service based .. while India, China and US are a mix of industry Agriculture and Service..

India is way ahead of China in energy efficiency .. but then that could be because We still donot get continuous power supply for day-to-day consumption?.. or because China is building infrastructure capacity while we are just maintaining the old system..

Germany which is the largest exporter of Industrial goods (just recently china eclipsed Germany in industrial goods export) .. has a high GDP/energy ratio.. and I guess there is something to learn from Germany...

All said and done .. I think its fair to say that .. going forward .. everybody is going to see a drop in quality of life due to rising energy prices..

We also need to see the area's of future growth..

most likely industries that are energy efficient will see a rise in demand.. because its cheaper (animation movies instead of salman khan /computer games/virtual reality ..instead of a vacation trip)

Companies that have been able to produce with lower energy consumption (recycle.. renewable energy..) will see their profits rise.. and inefficient producers will be washed out..

Petroleum based products will slowly loose value as everybody becomes energy conscious..

Are we going to see a unified currency.. like Euro take shape.. for North America, South East Asia, Asia?? as intercontinental trade drops and regional trade increases..

=happy investing