The Energy Equation is changing fast.

I dont know where to start and dont know where to end it. We all have just seen a price hike in India for "Petrol" to around Rs 72 per liter. An american Gallon is 3.78 liters which means in India we pay close to Indian Rupees: 272.16 per gallon of "Gas" which assuming Rs 50 per Dollar is 5.44 Dollars per Gallon of Gas.

Again the question is not about the Price of oil but Peak oil.
- Peak oil means world has reached a peak (maximum) barrels of oil production. and this number will never exceed.
- Peak oil does not mean there will be no more oil .. but oil will be "MORE" expensive to produce.
- Food is the largest consumer of Oil Resource followed by Transportation and then Housing.
- According to published data "Peak oil " production was: 74.82 Million barrels per day on July 2008.

This is an old image with data from 2009 as the latest data.
If you see the chart "Peaks" are preceded or followed by "Drop" in production which basically means some of this is carry forward oil. (planning for Winter requirements or Peak driving periods)

Here is a more recent data provided by US EIA (Energy Information Administration).

Here also we can see new peaks but again preceded and followed by slump .. which means its more due to preparation for projected demand. Its better to look at yearly avg production.

Another important point of view worth pointing out is the "7 Month Data" looking from a different perspective. We are looking at countries which are still increasing production and countries which have a fall in production of crude.

Increase In Production: Persian Gulf Nations, Canada, China, Russia, United States and World
Decrease in Production: Egypt, Mexico, Norway, United Kingdom, Total Non OPEC.

- This is production figures for crude oil, does not include natural gas and plant liquids.
- China and US are increasing production based on Shale Oil??
- Canada is producing based on Tar Sands??
- Total Non OPEC is down which means without OPEC at World level we are producing less oil.

Again we are getting carried away in the details..
- India with annual fuel production of 500-700,000 barrels per day and imports of 1,500,000 barrels per day is in a very bad position.
- India with large production capacity of food, fruits, vegetables, milk is favorably placed to take care of the basic needs of  the population.
- Fertilizer's and pesticides require Oil.
- Energy requirements are also there for communication, transportation.
- Population control is a must to keep a population size that is sustainable.
- Debate about Peak oil and alternative society structures to build sustainable communities is very important.
- Ayurveda, Unani, Homeopathy traditional medicine should be encouraged for general well being.
- Off the GRID setup like Biogas, Solar and transportation are urgent requirements.
- learn important trade skills for a future with "Peak oil"
- Instead of debating Fuel Price hike we should be debating Peak oil and the required changes in social structure.
- Personal transportation is a strict No-No. Reduce unnecessary use of fuel guzzlers. Use public transport.

Conclusion: Stock market no longer seems to be a long term area for investment. Very Very stock specific investments will have to be made and keep in mind Peak oil and energy footprint of companies. Auto, transportation, Airlines, travel, are a strict No-No for investment ideas. Also real estate investment is a big risk. Banks (No). Mind you these are long term themes and we could see short term spikes.







EIA Monthly Data 
The Oil Drum