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Friday, October 18, 2013

Shale Gas Production on Downhill Slope..

Shale Gas revolution started in Barnett Shale... 2005 was the first year when Horizontal drilling wells formed majority of wells being drilled in Barnett Shale..

There are indicators of production.. 
1. No of Active wells
2. No of new well permits
3. Actual Production figures

No of Active wells in Barnett Shale:

No of new well permits:

Actual Production Figures

The drop in drilling permits is an early indicator of the subsequent drop in production rates of Shale Gas..
So looks like the wells are at the max productive for 6yrs or so.. 

As per the article I am referencing.. "David Hughes has made a detailed study of the Barnett Shale and the report includes activities up until May 2012. For individual wells the production in newly drilled wells falls by 61% in the first year and this fact and the fact that production continues to decline thereafter means that every year 1507 new wells must be drilled to maintain a constant level of total production. The fact that they drilled 840 new wells in 2012 should mean therefore that production will decline in 2013."

So Shale Gas is a short term boost and its coming to an end.. maybe another couple of years or so we will start seeing drop in Shale Gas production in US.. (my personal opinion)

David Hughes - PCI - Energy Sustainability Dilemma - Cornell 5-2-12

Conclusion: What ever people say.. its important to be ready for an "energy deficient future" plan your investments and your lifestyle accordingly.. Its important to be aligned to agro based investments (GAEL, Jayant Agro).. energy efficient investments (NHPC, Tata Comm). 
Save energy should be the underlying theme.

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