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Thursday, December 29, 2011

Review of Dec 4700 PUT @ 68 dated: Dec 10,2011

Lets review the short term call given:
Recommendation Date: Dec 10,2011
Recommendation: Sell NIFTY 4700 PUT @ 68 on Monday Dec 12,2011. Buyback the PUT @ 2 on Dec 29,2011. Earn 12% return in one month.
Dec 29,2011 NIFTY-4700-PUT-Dec closed @ 53.85

Actual Result:
Profit: ((68-53.85)*50)-307.50 = 400
Returns: 400/25,000 = 1.6%
Well so that's it folks.. as we can see.. expectations are different and reality is a lot different. We expected 12% return in reality we got 1.6% but lets dig a little deeper..

Here is the price movement of NIFTY-4700-PUT-Dec from Dec9,2011 till the date of expiry (Dec 29,2011)

As we can see NIFTY-4700-PUT-Dec has moved from lowest price of 10.05 (Dec 27,2011) to a high price of 180.55(Dec 19,2011) giving us opportunities (10.05) and also some scary moments (180.55)

Conclusion: On Dec 9,2011 NIFTY was @ 4866 and Dec 29,2011 NIFTY @ 4646  a drop of 4.5% 
but we still got to close the month with a profit of 1.6% ..
Option "Selling"  Its an opportunity to get higher returns but not without potential losses.. everyone has to take a call ..
should I sell at 10 or wait for 2,
should I book losses at 180 or sell 1 lot  NIFTY-4500-PUT-Dec @ 50.50 (Recommended on Dec 16,2011)

This is not a one shoe fits all.. my current recommendation for NIFTY-JAN-4600-PUT @ 76.50 has been executed by "My own world...In my own Words" @ 87 which is at a great price.. So find your own battles.. (entry and exit points)
its recommended to take the final call yourself.. 
- Do not take bets which you cannot afford to loose..
- Always keep extra cash just in case you get margin calls

Another strategy is: Straddle from both sides..
- SELL NIFTY-JAN-4600-PUT @87    and
- SELL NIFTY-JAN-4900-CALL @ 40.40
Investment 50,000 you make (87+40.40) *50 -600(Transaction cost) = Rs 5770 i.e. 11.54% return.

This is only if NIFTY Closes between 4700 and 4900 by end of JAN 2012 Expiry ..your earnings will drop but your profits are protected till 127 points on either side i.e. you will not make losses till 4573 and 5027 in NIFTY..
(personally I would not recommend this as NIFTY @ 4646 is still closer to the bottom rather than at the top..)

Happy New Year!!
=Happy Investing

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