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Monday, October 23, 2017

How Are We Doing Diwali 2017

Wishing All Investors. Readers & Visitors A Very Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year...
Let us start with a review of performance of stocks reviewed/recommended in this blog.

A total of 34 stocks have been reviewed in the blog.  Hypothetically anyone who invested 10,000/- in each recommended stock (at the recommended price) would have invested 3,40,000/- and on Oct 20,2017 the market value of the stocks would be 14,11,393/- giving you an absolute value of  315% increase in your investment... including dividend it would be 330%. 

If invested in only recommended best buy stocks (GAEL,NHPC, Tata Communications, Tata Power) would have resulted in an absolute value of 359% increase

If invested in only dividend paying stocks the absolute value return is: 406.85%..

Nifty and Sensex over the same period have given absolute return of 134% and 127% (approximately 15% per annum) our returns have been around 315%  (approximately 37.5% per annum) 

of course these are not strictly comparable.. as NIFTY does adjust the stocks that make up the index... while ours is a constant list.. with only additions and no subtractions...

The markets are doing well and will continue to do well.. the underlying reason is the rush of liquidity..

At an international level a large part of the bank funds (Quantitative Easing money ) was parked with the  FED earning some 0.25% and importantly outside the financial market hands....With increase in FED rates.. This QE fund has moved out of the FED books into the financial market increasing liquidity.. 

In India the sudden interest of indian public to invest in financial assets instead of gold and real estate has increased the amount of domestic capital available..  pushing FII money to the "back bencher" state 

also with govt interest in identifying the true owners of assets by linking them with Aadhar numbers (biometric identity) it is removing duplicate PAN number holders.. 

HNI investors who were hiding their wealth using multiple/fictitious  PAN account numbers are now feeling the heat and so we are seeing that everyone is coming clean with their assets..

Banks under strict Basel-III guidelines are giving loans to financially sound companies.. forcing management to report strong cash flows and healthy bottomlines.. 

with India entering into the golden age with highest population of working age indians..(also known as Demographic Dividend)  we can expect demand for goods to be steadily increasing for the next 10 years..

All things are pointing to a steady increase in market value of stocks.. we will see corrections but should be small corrections.. 

There are possible bottlenecks.. One thing that could be a black swan event is "peak oil" i.e. oil price rising to economically unsustainable levels..(which could manifest in global escalation in conflict)   BASEL-III though is sapping out liquidity by reducing the turnover rates of money.. it could result in demand contraction world wide and have -ve side effect on indian growth story.. 

Conclusion: India should see steady increase in demand due to good demographic data.. growth in India is given.. so its positive for companies. most stocks are priced to perfection but there are stocks discussed which are still fairly priced.  remain invested is the suggestion.. as corrections will be short lived.. (Not counting Peak oil Black swan event..) 

=happy investing


Anonymous said...


Please share your inputs on Manugraph as on date?

What'sUp Prahalad said...

Anonymous ji,

I am holding on to my investment in Manugraph. Manugraph recently filed bankruptcy proceedings for its US subsidiary and has actually cleaned its books... we should see manugraph report better earnings in the future..

=happy investing

kayjc0975 said...

Good morning sir your reviews and reccos are awsome, i just stumbled upon your blog yesterday i wish ihad it earlier,i entred Skm egg products at 115 im sitting on losses, it's a well managed company but the stock performance has been bad, whats yr take on future growth and prices pls will be great to hear from you soon.

What'sUp Prahalad said...

Kayjc ji:

unfortunately I think the management of SKM is taking us for a ride.. first there was a hatcheries business (egg layering farm) which they sold to a pvt company owned by the promoters themselves..

they started selling branded eggs in India Again under SKM but after using all the resources for initial startup.. the branded egg:Best egg was transferred out..

So basically SKM is their publicly listed company which does all the heavy lifting for initial business setup.. after which the good business is transferred to pvt companies owned by the promoters..

So I would skip SKM.. for investment.. I think right now most attractively priced is KPT (Kulkarni power Tools) you will have to be patient with investment.. right now its selling very very cheap.. could easily more than double.. multibagger..

=happy investing

kayjc0975 said...

Prahalad ji,
Appreciate your precious time spent ,thank you for your expertise on the subject of SKM which is so highly spoken of, im really disappointed, i will seriously look to exit at a loss and buy KPT many thanks sir.

Anonymous said...

Hi Whatsupji,

Would you suggest investing in Manugraph or KPT currently for better and quicker returns?

What'sUp Prahalad said...

Anonymous ji,

KPT is more attractively priced.. Manugraph is Blue Chip company..

Wish I could answer the question.. which one will give "quicker returns"

I am invested in "both" .. you can also invest in tilaknagar cmp:16 which is one of the top liquor companies in India owner of mansion house brand.. could turn into a lifetime purchase as demand is future proof

-happy investing

Anonymous said...

Hi Whatupji,

Please share your thoughts on the results of manugraph? And it's share price growth?

Anonymous said...

Whatsup ji , what are your views on Sintex Industries? Is it a good buy at 24-25 considering its book value and capacity addition going live in the near future.

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