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Saturday, January 15, 2011

Company: Gujarat Ambuja Exports: Dec 31,2010 Shareholding data review

Gujarat Ambuja Exports latest Shareholding report has been published in National Stock Exchange (NSE) website www.nseindia.com

We compare the shareholding data for Sept 30,2010 and Dec 31,2010 for Gujarat Ambuja Exports

As we can see.
1. Total number of shareholders has reduced further from 56690 to 56156 .. which means consolidation is still "on"
2. Individual shareholders (Weak hands) are the largest sellers. No of Individual investors has reduced from 55949 to 55362 a decrease of 587 individual shareholders.. In terms of  number of shares shareholding reduced from 35,284,376 to 34,297,786 reduction of 986,590 shares. 
3. High Net-worth Individuals (HNI) who hold more than 100 thousand  (1 lakh ) face value equity ie 50,000 shares (Face Value = 2). HNI have reduced from 28 to 27 but the number of shares held has increased from 2,701,554 to 2,988,361 an increase of  286,807 shares even as number of shareholders has reduced.
4. No of corporates have increased while the % shareholding has reduced.. 
5. Mutual funds have also entered into GAEL and no of MF/UTI has increased from 11 to 14 also the number of shares held has also increased from 6,353,255 to 9,132,745 an increase of 2,779,490 shares.
6. Promoters have also increased shareholding from 63.93 to 63.95 an increase of 25,000 shares.

Conclusion: Public shareholding is decreasing and decreasing fast. Individual shareholders avg shareholding was 630.65 in Sept 2010 and in Dec 2010 avg. has fallen to 619.50. Weak hands are defined as fickle minded short term oriented and Individual investors are living up to that definition. 
Another thing which is not being considered is that even within individual investors holding of 34,297,786 only 15,234,216  are in demat rest are in physical form and cannot be traded.. Actual liquidity in GAEL is pretty low and any concerted buying is going to push GAEL easily above 50 levels.. 
This is a great entry price 35-38 level. 50 is given and it would be advisable not to sell at 50 levels.. Investors who bought low and are planning to enter again at lower levels are waiting and the wait is getting longer and longer.. It always make sense to play for the long term specially when we are confident of the company financials and the overall health of the economy.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi WhatsUp, Here is an article from My Iris by SMC-

Gujarat Ambuja Exports (GAEL)

Investment Rationale

>GAEL is setting up vegetable oils unit at Kadi in Gujarat. The plant will have the capacity to produce 9,000 tons per annum (tpa) of vegetable oils. Work on the project is under progress and is scheduled for completion by Jul 2011.

>The company is setting up a 11-mega watt, coal- based thermal power plant at Dalpur in Gujarat at an investment of Rs 560 million. Work on the unit is in progress and is scheduled to be completed by Jan 2011.

> It is setting up one of the country`s biggest maize processing unit at Hulasogi village in Shiggaon taluk of Haveri district in Karnataka at an investment outflow of Rs 1.1 billion. The unit is strategically located in the state which produces 30 lakh tons of maize annually, while the farmers in Shiggoan produce around 5 lakh tons of maize, which is more than the units requirements. The new plant which is schedule to commission commercial production by July will have the capacity to process 750 tons of maize per day. Meanwhile GAEL is planning to acquire additional 41 acres of land at Hulasogi to set up other units at the same location and in order to meet its energy requirement it plans to set up 5MW power plant.

> The company with its focus on international trade has set up a wholly-owned subsidiary at Singapore and has recently promoted a vanaspati and oil refinery project in Sri Lanka. To compete globally with giants, the company has put in place a strong infrastructure that constitutes technologically advanced plants with captive power generation at each plant. GAEL is poised to scale newer heights and is fully geared to achieve the magical Rs 18 billion operational turnover .