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Saturday, June 09, 2012

Jayant Agro Organics: Peek into the future..

Q1 results are nothing but sales and profit for the months of 
April-May June which is reported in "July"

Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) publishes India's 

export data every month.. so by July we can get our hands into 
the dgft export numbers for Jayant agro in month of April, May 
and June giving us a fair idea of what the sales number will look 
like in Q1 report in July..

If you want to find the dgft export numbers for Jayant for a month 

in the past you need to search in google with the keywords 
"Licences issued for Category dgft (month) (year) Jayant agro Organics"
Search for Month: Jan year: 2012 will be
Licences issued for category dgft Jan 2012 Jayant Agro Organics
The search we are looking for is under the heading "Licences issued for Category"

There are 3 sections under which Jayant Agro Organics reports 
export data..
- Vishesh Krishi Upaj Yojana
- Focus Product Scheme
- DEPB Post Export
Focus Product Scheme and Vishesh Krishi Upaj Yojana are

 in one link while DEPB Post Export is a separate link..

So for each month's export data we need to collate data from two 
links provided by DGFT
For the month of Jan 2012 the two links are:-
Vishesh Krishi Upaj Yojana & Focus Product Scheme (Link)
DEPB Export (Link)
The reported data is CIF (Cost of Insurance & Freight) ..

 it does not disclose the actual value of export which 
is reported as FOB (Freight on Board)

Luckily I did get my hands on FOB Data from dgft which was 

available to public for Feb and March 2012 and compared 
CIF and FOB ratio.. According to me..for Jayant 
FOB is approximately 30 times CIF for Vishesh Krishi Upaj Yojana
FOB is approximately 50 times CIF for Focus Product Scheme
FOB is approximately 30 times CIF for DEPB Export 
(I did not have the FOB data for DEPB Export .. its my 
own assumption)

Right now you can peek into Jayant Agro's  CIF data for April 
2012 just Google search for:-
Licences issued for category dgft April 2012 Jayant Agro Organics
remember there are two links from which you need to collate 
the data..

PN: I did speak to the management about the data being published
 by DGFT and my interpretation of sales numbers..
Jayant Agro management's understanding was that I had drawn 
wrong conclusions and hence my estimated sales numbers for 
Jayant are due to mis-interpretation of DGFT data... 

So please understand any information you conclude from DGFT 
data is your own interpretation.. and quite possibly wrong.. Its a 
Peek into the future but not necessarily a true complete picture..

I am long Jayant Agro Organics..

=happy investing


Sid said...

WhatsUp Ji,

Thanks a lot for the update.
The price action in jayant suggests MM is allowing it to reach it's true value. It is showing lot of strength in this not so good overall market.

Btw what is your strategy on GAEL.
Is it worth holding for some more time? Would it be prudent to add some at this level?

Thanks and Regards,

What'sUp Prahalad said...

Sid ji:

Definitely GAEL is quoting at rock bottom prices.. and I donot see the stock falling below these levels..

So yes one can buy at these levels 18-19-20..

Personally I am already an HNI investor so already have a lot of GAEL in my portfolio..

=happy investing

Anonymous said...

WhatsUP Ji,

The DGFT data appears to be about LICENSES issued. Does it mean that LICENSES issued = actual export?

I presume the numbers are in USD.

What'sUp Prahalad said...

Anonymous ji:
As per my understanding its in Indian Rupees.. CIF (Cost of Insurance and Freight) is a fraction of the actual value of Sale of goods..(FOB)

Fortunately I did get the FOB data also for the month of Feb and March 2012.. and I did a FOB/CIF ratio and what I found was Jayant agro FOB/CIF ratio is:
Vishesh Krishi Upaj Yojana:- 30
Focus Product Scheme: 50
DEPB Export I did not have actual FOB data so I have assumed lesser of the above 2 ie.. 30.

Now I did ask the promoters for the reported sales figures and DGFT export data:
My letter to management extract:
=========Start my letter=================
According to DGFT FOB value of exports by Jayant Agro Organics and Subsidiary Ihsedu Agro Chem.
Period Jan1,2012 to Jan 31,2012:- FOB Value: 147.6Cr (attached spreadsheet)
Period Feb 1,2012 to Feb 29,2012:- FOB Value: 149.8Cr (attached spreadsheet)
Period Mar 1,2012 to Mar 31,2012:- FOB Value: 231.1Cr (attached spreadsheet)

Total approximate FOB Export value by Jayant Agro Organics and Ihsedu Agro Chem for the Period Jan 1,2012 to March 31,2012 :- 528.50Cr (According to DGFT published data)
======End my letter extract=============

Jayant Agro Management response was:
=======Start management letter extract=============
The details furnished by you, have been examined in our office, however you have drawn your conclusion on wrong presumption that all the licences (VKGUY, FPS, DEPB) are being issued on the basis of current exports.

Please note that licences during January-March quarter for which FOB value was considered by the licencing authority are for all past exports up to six/nine months. We therefore reiterate that statement made by you is based on misinterpretation.
=========End management letter extract=======

My personal opinion is/was:-
License is issued only when exports are booked.. and should have one to one correspondence to actual export.. and I did collate data for Q3 (Oct-Nov-Dec 2011) as well as (July-Aug-Sept 2011) they are almost always in the range of 500Cr per quarter..

Now I am not a forwarding agent and donot understand the nitty gritty of export and issue of license.. It is also quite possible the license numbers are same or re-issued for next month/quarter.. if you fail to export for the month..

Yes this is not 100% certain information.. and management has stated clearly that it covers more than 1 quarter of export..

I am not in a position to pass an educated guess but I do see a brighter future for jayant Agro organics just based on demand prospects..

This DGFT data will help us identify new info like I see higher "Focused product scheme" exports for April 2012 which indicates an improvement in margin and Focused product scheme is for castor oil derivatives (My opinion)

I hope this makes sense..

=happy investing