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Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Inflation and Growth: Hindu rate of growth?

Inflation is increase in price of goods and services and something to be avoided.. surprisingly inflation at 2-3% is something every nation's central banker aspires for as an ideal inflation target??
Coincidentally the "Hindu rate of Growth" once famous as the rate at which the Indian economy was growing was also 3%

A farmer takes a handfull of seeds worth maybe 1000/= Adds water and fertilizer of say 2000/= and generates goods worth 10,000 in 4-5 months time frame. Farming is not considered as a profitable venture.. when anything that returns 16% ROCE is actually a great thing? why is farming not profitable?

Why is increase in price of food ... food inflation negative while increase in asset prices (house/real estate/stocks) considered positive? Inflation and Growth definition have been force fed .. where "inflation is bad while "Growth" is good when the fact is without "Inflation" there is no growth?

Financial Assets are given higher weightage while core assets such as production of food crops and cotton are labelled as commodities and almost pushed out of the economic picture.. to the level where one is considered a developed country because the economy is basically "Service oriented" 

The Peak Energy crisis which basically means that "Energy is no longer Cheap" changes the priority 180Degrees.. 
Cheap energy prices encouraged "Use and Throw" Replacement mentality..
High energy prices will question if we really need to "Replace" something that is not broken?
Cutting edge was a requirement to stay ahead of competition .. but going forward is it going to be "Live and let live" everybody manages their share of the global consumer market?
Economic growth will tumble (actually negative) while what will remain is basic necessities such as food, clothing and shelter.. with food being the prime economic engine (as its perishable and required on a daily basis) while "Clothing and Shelter" due to their longer shelf life will be smaller part of the future economy..

India has been an energy deprived state and has imported most of its energy requirements.. The original idea was to have an economy that was self sustained which meant "curtail energy demand" (Oil import)
The India of today has allowed the consumer demand to be "open" which is equivalent to taking a child to a toy shop and asking him/her to "Feel free" to buy anything and everything you want.. what we will end up with is a toy shop in our home. Every household has a pvt vehicle (2 or 4 wheels) People go for a "Drive" to kill boredom.. Drive makes people feel productive (I am going somewhere!!) Cars are being marketed as "The First home where I relax"  - Amazingly Nuts!!

What we need is a controlled /directed use of resources to productive assets..Energy Independence is "Key" Renewable energy resources such as hydro electricity must be encouraged. "Telecommute" use public transportation (Rail, waterway, road,air) 

The real economic activity of agriculture production (which happens at the farm level) is a small part of the current global economy and hence the "Peak energy" will shrink the "Financial assets" economy running on Cheap oil while the "Real economy will continue to run and maybe expand at 3% level..

Service industry is a dying industry.. as demand will remain for the basic necessities .. future is bright in "Food industry", "Renewable Energy" and "Public transportation" 

Stocks in general are a loosing proposition..(due to peak energy making most of the economic activities un-economical)  one has to be stock specific .. I have locked in on "Jayant Agro, GAEL, NHPC and Tata Comm" find your gems.. and focus. 

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