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Wednesday, July 04, 2012

Jayant Agro: June DGFT Export numbers

Director General of Foreign Trade has published Export data for Month of June 2012 
as per DGFT data Jayant has Export FOB (Free On Board)for June 2012 at 157.9Cr 
You can get the info at DGFT Website (Link)

License no info for Jayant is available here (Link)
IEC Code for Jayant is: IEC: 0393002047

Here is the processed data (June 2012) for every one..

April 2012 FOB Data was: 242.07Cr (Link)
May 2012 FOB Data is: 187.59Cr(Link)
June 2012 FOB Data is 157.9Cr
So Q1 2013 ie quarter ending June 2012  = 242.07 + 187.59+157.9 = 587.56Cr

Another observation is that higher value Derivatives exports are forming a larger part of Jayant's exports.. Derivatives are higher value exports where the FOB/CIF is around 50 while castor oil & 1st Generation derivatives have a FOB/CIF ratio of 20-30 which is good news for investors in Jayant Agro.

PN: Please Note this is the expected sales numbers to be reported by Jayant Agro based on publicly available information. There is also a possibility that there is misinterpretation of data... Please do your own deep dive before investing

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

April 242.07
May 187.59
June 157.9

Do you have any idea why the trend is downwards?

What'sUp Prahalad said...

Anonymous ji:

it is only possible if we compare the numbers with last year..

any agro commodity is based on production cycles and demand..

having said that ..I expect sales to still rise..

Quarterly sales of 570Cr is itself a big deal..

=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com

km said...

Dear Prahalad,
Please comment on Reliance off-loading 4% of Gael to its promoters.
Is reliance having a better option and have forced the promoters to absorb the load so that the proce remains stable.
Regards
K.Murali

What'sUp Prahalad said...

KM:

actually I think the Reliance Mutual fund team must have made a packet (in underhand income) for having sold such a large amount of stock at such cheap prices to promoters (buyback was at 34 and you buy 4% at 19 hat a 44% discount over buyback rate..)

Promoter buying consistently is
always a good sign.. so its not negative..

right now GAEL gives dividend worth 9.6Cr and promoter holding of 68% means they receive 6.5Cr tax free

GAEL Net profit is around 62Cr (6 yrs avg) and just 20% payout(12.4Cr) means promoters get 8.4Cr

So as promoter shareholding increases we can expect higher dividend payout..

Higher dividend payout also means higher stock prices..

so all is well!!

=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

Dear WhatsUP Ji,

I'm seeing trends where promoters have 60-70% holding, they have iron-like grip on prices. Mostly downwards.

If you tabulate promoters holding in
30-40%, 40-50%, 50-60%, 60-70% buckets with prices, you will see higher PEs for 1st & 2nd bucket.

Why do I get a feeling that promoters acquiring more after 50-60%% bucket leads to downward holding?

Also, a mix of higher holdings by FIIs & DIIs give higher prices.


Thanks

What'sUp Prahalad said...

KM Ji:

actually its not easy making money (as a company) its much easier selling your stocks and make tonnes issuing new shares..

the one with low promoter stake and high stock price fall in this category..

===================
high promoter stake companies make tonnes of money and are consistent..
===================
I remember Godrej industries.. which was available at 35 per share (Rs 6 face value promoters were buying from 18 levels..)

Now its a Rs 1 stock and price is Rs 243 per share.. thats like Face value 6 Rs 1458 per share..

Even Wipro would fall into this category.. though I dont remember what its price was..

GAEL is a 150Cr PBDIT Company available at market cap 281Cr and that's cheap!! anyway you look at it..

soon its maize capacity is going to be large enough to make things look even cheaper..

=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

WhatsUP Ji,

Well, I am not KM but your normal grey Anonymous guy.

The examples you have given for Godrej & Wipro. Both promoters have track record in governance.

Are we, at the risk of being naive, apply sound investing principles, a la Benjamin Graham, for promoters with questionable credentials?

You know what happened to Riddi Siddhi.

To be brutally honest, I am looking for exit from GAEL as soon as it reaches my avg price (Rs 31.5 per share).

What'sUp Prahalad said...

Anonymous ji:

Sorry for the mixup..
Well what we are doing is discussion.. I am not and cannot be the final word with respect to GAEL so.. yes.. you have your own decisions to take and I would respect you for it..

GAEL does maintain a clean balance sheet.. I dont know what you mean by corporate governance..

If it means maintaining a great stock price.. then Godrej industries (erstwhile Godrej soaps) was in dumps till the management increased their holding in Godrej industries to around 80% after which the stock has moved up close to 20-40 times..

Same with Wipro.. so lets wait till we see GAEL promoter stake at 70-80% levels.. and then see the performance of GAEL Stock..

=happy investing
whatsup-indianstockideas.blogspot.com